Giving them too much credit

When I used to play at the Oaks Club on a daily basis, I often played against a fellow by the name of Walter Brown. Walter is an international grandmaster in the world of chess and won the U.S. chess championship something like 6 or 7 times. It's apparent when you talk to him that he has an IQ that is off the charts. He'll be sitting there and out of the blue he'll mention something about the efficiency of some mundane process that the Oaks Club employees are engaging in or mention some way the world could be improved. It's clear that he's always got that big brain cooking something up.

You'd think Walter would make a sensational poker player. But, while he's always been a solid winning player (and a nice guy), he's never made the jump to being great and I never had any trouble beating him regularly. His biggest weakness is he gives his opponents too much credit. He is so logical in every action and thought that he can't conceive of someone making a totally irrational play that was based totally on impulse.

When people play poker they do some weird shit. It never ceases to amaze me. Sometimes it's out of boredom or anger. Sometimes it's because they "felt like gambling." Other times it's "just because." I had a hand come up recently in a $100 single table tournament that fits into the "just because" category. We were playing 4 handed with blinds of 200/400. The blinds each had about 2000 chips, I had 1300 chips and the other player, we'll call him Mr. X, had the remaining 8200 chips. I was first to act and moved all in for 1300 chips, Mr. X called and the other two players folded. I had a weak hand and was hoping to simply win the blinds before the flop so I wasn't happy to get called. When the hands were turned over I was thinking "If he doesn't have a pair or one of my cards I'll at least have a chance." But instead of a pair or an ace he showed 2 3! This is the worst possible hand to have heads up (yes worse than 7 2). What did he think I had? He couldn't beat anything. Did he have a psychic premonition that told him to get in there? Of course, he wasn't making a judgment about what I had or what he could beat. He didn't think things through at all, he just acted. Maybe he decided that he had so many chips he'd just throw a few around and see if he could get lucky and knock me out (which he did). Maybe he decided he was on a hot streak. Who knows.

The point is, you have to consider what I've heard called (in print mind you) the RBF or the Random Berzerko Factor. If you haven't played with someone before, they could be a berzerko waiting to strike down your AK with 9 5 when you least expect it.

More importantly you can't assume that everyone out there is playing the way you do. This is one of my big weaknesses. Sometimes I'll be agonizing over a decision and shocked at how off I was in my read. I'll have AQ, the flop will come down A, 9, 5, I'll bet, someone will put me all in and I'll think "He's either got Ak or AJ with a slight chance that he could have three 9's, but I have to call because there's so much in the pot already." I'll be crossing my fingers hoping for AJ, my opponent will turn over K9 or 44 and I think to myself "I'm giving these guys too much credit."

What really drives me bananas is when I have what I think is a close decision in a big pot, I decide to call, find out I'm WAY ahead and lose the pot anyway when a terrible card shows up on the turn or the river. That kind of thing might make you throw your dry erase markers across the room, causing your sleeping cat to tear out of the room in horror, leaving you eliminated from your tournament and feeling guilty that you scared your peaceful pet. Not that I have any experience with that kind of thing.

In person it's easy to make some pretty solid assumptions about what kind of player you might be facing, by noticing how they look, act, dress and speak. I can spot a beginner a mile away just by seeing how they hold their cards and if you see someone expertly doing tricks with their chips at least you know you're up against an experienced player. Online it's much more difficult. Everyone is just a blinking name and chip total. It's easy to assume that if you've never seen someone before they are playing more or less the same way that you are (hopefully a little worse). Sometimes when you have a decent hand you just have to get in there and cross your fingers. Hopefully when you do, you'll knock someone out and think "I've got to stop giving these clowns so much credit."