A Confusing, But Good Problem to Have

Over the past week I've continued my experiment with playing no limit cash games on pokerstars. So far my results have exceeded my expectations. After a few days of playing the $1/$2 blinds games I felt like I was doing a lot of breaking even with a little progress in the positive direction. So I decided to split the six games I was playing into three $1/$2 games and three $2/$4 games. Right away I made a few big hands in the $2/$4 games which made it easy to feel comfortable at the higher level (this is actually 1/5 the size of the biggest games I've played in, but that was over a year ago and it certainly wasn't while playing 6 games at a time).

It seemed like this was a good system so over the past several days I've been playing 3 games of each level. What's confusing to me is while I'm killing the $2/$4 games I'm breaking even in the $1/$2 games. When you double the stakes you're always going to have better players at the higher level so it doesn't make much sense that I should be winning WAY more than twice as much money against tougher players.

I have four theories, however, that might explain the disparity. The first is that while I feel I'm paying equal attention to all the games, I'm actually much more focused on the bigger games and thus able to make better decisions. The second is that the players at the higher level play much more how I'd expect them to. Perhaps at the lower level the players are playing so poorly that I'm having trouble figuring out what they have or I'm unable to manipulate them as well as better players who are thinking more. The third possibility is I might be unconsciously making riskier plays in the smaller games because the amount of money involved is less so I don't care as much if I lose. My fourth theory is that I've just been running really good in the bigger games and facing some short term bad luck in the smaller games. I suspect it's actually a combination of all of these aspects, but it still seems a little strange to me.

So how exactly have I been doing? Well over the course of 13,099 hands at the $1/$2 level I've lost $87. But, over the course of 4,373 hands of $2/$4 I've won $2,722 which is 62 cents a hand! I'm almost certain I can't keep that level of winning up in the long run, but if I could do even half that, I could make $4,500 a week. During the 17,000 plus hands I've played in the past 8 days I've also picked up about 40,000 FPP's which are worth $635 and I made a brief stop at the Oaks which netted me $375. All in all in the past 8 days I've won $3,732. SWEET!

The most important part is I've made a fundamental change in what I'm doing and that's what's bringing in all the money. If I'd just started winning more in the SNG's I wouldn't feel as good. It's the potential for future profits here that is so exciting.