E.B., Pai Gow, and the Dragon

Our favorite game to play in Vegas is Pai Gow Poker. The way the game works is every player is dealt 7 cards which they must split into a 5 card hand and a 2 card hand. You can split them any way you want with the one rule that the 5 card hand must have a higher poker rank than the 2 card hand. For example, if you got dealt A K J 8 8 7 5 as your 7 cards you couldn't make your 2 card hand a pair of 8's, but you could (and would) make your two card hand A K and your 5 card hand 8 8 J 7 5.

Once you've set your hand, the dealer turns over their hand and similarly splits their hand into a 2 card hand and a 5 card hand. If you beat the dealer's 2 card hand with your 2 card hand and their 5 card hand with your 5 card hand then you win. If you lose both hands you lose, and if you win one and lose one it's a push (or a tie) and no money changes hands.

The house makes their money by only paying out 95% on a winning bet (i.e. if you bet $100 you'll only get paid $95 when you win) and by winning exact copies (i.e. if you have KQ in the 2 card hand and the dealer also has KQ in their two card hand the dealer will win the 2 card hand portion, but if you beat them in the 5 card hand you won't lose your bet).

The reason this game is so good is the house has a very small edge compared to other casino games and it's much slower (speed is your enemy in the casino). You might get 120 rolls an hour at the craps table or 100 hands an hour at the black jack table (maybe 200-300 if it's just you and the dealer). Whereas at Pai Gow it's about 25-30 hands an hour and about 40% of those are pushes.

Now that we have that little explanation out of the way, on to the story. On Sunday night I spent the night at the Flamingo, while Jake was at the Paris and E.B. was at the MGM. Jake and I hooked up for breakfast at the Paris around noon and E.B. who'd already eaten said he'd meet us at the Pai Gow tables at the Paris between 1 and 2.
Around 2 o'clock I see E.B. walking from across the room in an apparent daze almost as if he isn't sure where he is. When he got to our table he said "finish this hand, and then I have to tell you the most ridiculous story."

Before heading to the Paris E.B. had decided to play a few hands of Pai Gow at the MGM. He was betting something like $100 a hand on each of two hands (If this sounds like a lot, it is; I usually bet $25 a hand and if things are going really well I might push it up to $50 a hand) when he came across the most tremendous dealer error.

In the past few months the MGM and it's sister properties have introduced a new bet at the Pai Gow table. You can deal 7 seven card hands from the deck which in the past used to be six player hands and a dealer hand. They've since switched it to a dealer hand, 5 player hands and The Dragon Hand (gasp)! The dragon hand is another hand that all 5 players can bet on. After the players look at their own hands and set them how they want, the dealer asks if anyone wants to "Bet The Dragon." Once the players have put their money in a betting circle which says "Dragon" or has a picture of a dragon on it, the dealer turns over their hand, sets it and then sets the dragon hand (they have rules to follow about how to set both hands). If the dragon hand beats the dealer's hand the players, as you might guess, win their dragon bet. If it loses or pushes they lose or push their dragon bet.

What happened at the table where E.B. was the only player was the dealer got confused about the order of operations on the dragon bet. Instead of asking E.B. if he wanted to bet the dragon BEFORE she turned over the dealer hand, she asked him AFTER he already saw what the dealer hand was!!! If she continued that way he wouldn't know what the dragon hand was going to be, but if the dealer showed a good hand he could avoid betting the dragon and if the dealer had garbage he could bet the dragon with a huge positive expectation. This is sort of like playing black jack if you could see both of the dealer's cards. You wouldn't win every hand, but you have such a huge advantage that it wouldn't take long to make some big money.

So E.B, who had come to Vegas with a nice wad of cash, pulled out $5,000 and bet $1,000 on the first hand. He had to go big on the regular hand, because the betting limit of the dragon bet is 2 times your regular bet. Also he was thinking that this was a limited time opportunity because at any time another player could sit down and correct the dealer or the pit boss could notice that the dealer was totally screwing up. In fact, as they normally do, the pit boss came over to watch the first hand that E.B. put $1,000 out there. But before the dealer could say anything or do anything to tip off the pit boss that she was going in the wrong order E.B. said "just kill the dragon hand, I'm not going to bet it this time."

Unfortunately, E.B. got a mediocre hand and lost to the dealer's hand. By the next hand, the pit boss had moved on and again E.B. bet $1,000. This time the dealer got a strong hand so E.B. opted to not bet the dragon and sadly lost his hand again. On the third hand with another $1,000 out there he got dealt a hand that contained no straights, flushes, pairs or cards above jack. A monumentally bad hand. But, the dealer got dealt a king high with no straights or flushes. An almost equally terrible hand. While E.B. knew he would lose his hand he was almost sure to win the dragon hand. So he bet the maximum $2,000 on the dragon hand...and lost! Not only did he not win, but he didn't even push. What a total disaster!

I broke out my probability book and did some calculations. 92% of the time you'll be dealt an ace high or better and of the remaining 8% a good chunk of them would at least push against an average king high. He got TOTALLY screwed at the absolute worst possible time and to make it worse he was out of money so he couldn't try to get it back.

While I'm pretty risk adverse for a professional gambler, in a spot where I'm getting paid even money on a bet where I'm a 10 to 1 favorite, I'd gladly bet $2,000 in a second. To put it into perspective let's say I give you a chance to draw from a deck of cards. If you draw any 2 or the 3 of clubs I win. If you draw anything else you win. How much would you bet if you were 100% sure it was a fair deck?

There's actually more to the story and it involves what happened when he got to the Paris, but that will have to wait for a day or two. Aren't these minor cliff hangers and teasers awesome!