Back to My Specialty

I was once again reminded of the power of internet poker yesterday. The key to winning on the internet is volume. At the WSOP every decision is critical. Watching your opponents and learning their betting patterns and mannerisms over a period of hours helps you eventually take them out. In a live game you get about 35 hands an hour (which may sound like a lot, but it's really not). In the same game online you'll get 60-70 hands an hour. Why so much faster? Well it takes all of about 1.5 seconds to shuffle and deal the cards online, you don't ever have to count out chips and every action is just a click of the mouse. Also you aren't limited to playing just one game at a time. After playing online almost full time for the past few years I've gotten really good at managing multiple games and making quick decisions (plus I have a 30 inch monitor so I can see everything that's going on). The most games I've ever played at once is 9, but I usually limit it to 6 at a time. I was thinking that yesterday I played more hands before I had lunch (about 2,000) than I did during the 9 WSOP events I played (about 1,500). The bottom line is I played 62 single table tournaments (starting with 9 players with the top 3 spots playing - in a $100 tournament 1st pays $472.5, 2nd pays $283.5, and third pays $189) yesterday and won $3,702. Nice timing for a good win.

Well what was the damage?

I lost $17,239 playing WSOP events (I didn't actually play any other poker while I was there). Of that my share of the loss is 51.5% or $8,878. But let's not forget that I won $3,500 playing stupid casino games. There was also something like 1800 worth of expenses (I have exact records but have yet to add it up) so far and of course the opportunity cost of not working for 2 weeks. A decent showing in the main event could easily wipe all of this away, but you'll have to wait for the preview to get the full details.

I'll probably keep blogging a little between now and when I head back to Vegas and may continue after that. At the very least look out for the "Main Event Preview" which will be coming some time soon. For now let me just say that after 13 days in Vegas it's great to be home. Jen cooked me a FANTASTIC home cooked meal yesterday (she's turning into a super duper cook) and we caught up on some TIVO'd reality shows. I'll probably have a half assed work day today and then get back on my horse tomorrow. Thanks again for all of the good luck wishes and support I've gotten from everyone reading this blog. If anyone out there want's to get into online poker, wants recomendations about poker books (strategy books or interesting reads about poker), or has any poker questions send me an e-mail (or post a comment) and I'll help you get started, recomend, or answer.

A little math

Clearly I'm a little disapointed with my performance so far at the WSOP, but how bad was it? Let's look a few exmaples to put it into perspective. Imagine the player who is in the exact middle of the field, let's call him Middleton. Half the players are better than him and half the players are worse in every event he plays. Middleton shoud have exactly a 10% chance of making the money whenever he enters. So if Middleton played 9 events (just like certain other players we know and love) what are the chances of him finishing in the money in ZERO events (the math for 1 money finish is a little more complicated so we'll stick with this). Who said 10%? Nope. 26.57%? Now you're just guessing. The real answer is actually 38%. 38% of the time Middleton would have no money finishes after playing 9 events even though he's better than half of the other players.

Now lets look at a great player. We'll call him captain 20! Captain 20 is better than almost all of the players he plays against and makes the money 20% of the time he enters an event. What are the chances of him going o for 9? Who said 19%? Nope. It's actually 13.5%. Even a great player can still expect to get totally blanked almost 14% of the time he enters 9 events.

Now let's look at a player that makes the money 30% of the time. We'll call him the figment, because guess what he doesn't exsist. There's just too much short term luck and too many other good players for anyone to make the money this frequently. Even if you put Phil Ivey (who many think is the best player in the world) into a mythical $50 tournament (let's assume you agree to give him 100 times what he actually wins so he's interested) where they gave you plenty of time to play (a normal $50 tournamnet would have about 100 players and will usually be over in 4 hours or less) with a bunch of total amatures he still wouldn't make the money more than about a third of the time.

So where do I fit in. When I play tournaments on the internet that pay 10% of the field with buy-ins ranging from $50-$300 (which other than special events is as big as they get online) I've finished in the money about 22% of the time (in 2005 I played 606 tournamnets of this type). At the WSOP I'd put myself some where in betten Middleton and Captain 20, but it's hard to say and I may never really know where I fit in. In order to get any kind of idea statistically I'd have to play AT LEAST 100 events (and probably more like 500 or 1000). The problem with that (along with the insane cost) is after playing 50 events I'll be much better than I was when I started and after another 50 I'd be much better than I was after the first 50. So I really just have to guess where I stand. The real question is "If I played this tournament 10,000 would I have more money than I started with." At the WSOP if the answer is yes then I should play. In smaller tournaments the answer has to be yes and then we have to look at how much. I could go beat the shit out of some $20 players all day every day, but it wouldn't get me much.

Event 12 recap

It's a little late but here it is! Event #12, $2,500 no limit hold 'em, started with 1290 players and I had great feeling about it going in. On the very first hand of the tournament I easily could have gone broke. I was two off the button with J 9 and I considered raising because the players in the blinds had not yet arrived at the table, but their chips were still in the pot (you don't get a free trip through the blinds if you're not there yet). Despite what looked like easy money out there, I decided to fold and the player to my left, a 50ish Englishman, made it 125 to go (the blinds were 25/25). The player to his left made it 300, he called, and the flop came J J 4. I was kicking myself for folding what would have been trip jacks until the Englishman checked and called a bet of 800. It looked like one of these fellows probably had a J. The turn was another 4 and the Englishman instantly put the rest of his 1400 chips into the pot. After about a good 3 or 4 minutes the other player folded QQ face up and the Englishman showed a 4 to the table. He threw in both of his cards face down and someone asked "what did he show?" Everyone said "a four," but the Englishman reached out a flipped up one of the cards he'd just folded anyway. It was a four, BUT the card he flipped up wasn't the same 4 he'd already shown - he'd made four of a kind. I don't think anyone noticed that he'd grabbed a different card but I was sitting right next to him so I caught it. If I had seen the flop I would have been out on the first hand.

A few hands later I dodged another bullet. One player raised to 100, another made it 300 to go and I looked down at JJ - the 4th or 5th best starting hand in hold 'em. Raising, calling and folding were all options here. If I raised and got reraised I could be sure I was against a bigger pair, but I'd be risking about a third of my chips to find out. If I called and the board was all small cards I'd probably go broke if someone had me beat. I decided it was still too early and folded. The player who'd had QQ in the first hand moved all in with 99 and was called by one of the other players who showed KK and won the pot with a full house.

Despite my Matrix style bullet dodging I was still getting hit with some shrapnel and found myself down to 1100 chips after the first hour. I had yet to win a pot even though I'd been getting some pretty good cards. I caught my first break in round 2 with the blinds a 25/50 when the button open raised to 150. After finding 22 in my hand, I got aggressive and moved all in. I'd be about a 53% favorite against any non pair and I was planning on winning the pot before the flop. My opponent called in about 1/10 of a second and I said "show me ace king!" AK and pairs much bigger than 22 were the only hands that would require no thought before a call. Happily he showed me AK, the cards that came out in the middle of the table were all garbage and I doubled up to about where I started.

Perhaps the easiest chips I picked up in the entire WSOP came to me a few hands later. The Englishman (who was super aggressive) open raised to 150 (this was a little out of character because he was normally raising to 5 to 10 times the big blind - too much in my opinion) and the button called. I was in the big blind and picked up two red 10's. I thought about just calling, but I figured the Englishman could have a wide range of hands and if the other player had anything great he would have rerasied so it was likely I had the best hand. I made it 650 to go and after about 30 seconds the Englishman called and the button quickly folded. The flop came down 10 6 5. DING DING DING! I had the best possible hand and I tried to figure out how to get the most money into the pot. Hoping to get called or raised, I bet 500 into a 1475 pot. The Englishman thought and asked how many chips I had left (a sign that he was considering moving all in). After some more thought, he just called. At this point I was checking no matter what came on the turn. If he was thinking about moving all in I wanted to give him every indication that I had a weak hand. The turn was a small club (which put two on the board), I checked, the Englishman immediately moved all in and I almost beat him into the pot. He turned up KJ of clubs and after no club materialized on the river I took down the pot.

Up to 5000 in chips I was feeling great as I moved to a new table and we went on break. My new table was tougher than my first and I found myself sitting across from Clonie Gowen, one of the best (and best looking) female players in the world. I bled off about 1000 chips in unspectacular fashion and found myself moving yet again to another table. At this new table I found Mike "The Mouth" Matasow. Mike has the most fitting nickname in all of poker - he never shuts up. I'd seen him on TV plenty (he finished 9th out of 5600 in last years main event and has two WSOP bracelets) and he's always seemed like a prick, but he was really nice to me and was actually pretty well behaved. Of course he was still talking constantly.

Shortly after arriving at my new table I got involved in the hand that was the turning point of the event. At the start of round 4 with the blinds at 100/200 I was in the big blind with 77. The player on the button raised to 525 and I had a decision to make. I could just call the 325 more and see a flop or I could reraise and try to win the pot right there. I looked at my opponents stack and he only had about 2000 more while I had about 4000 chips so even if he called me AND I lost I'd still have 1500 left (not a ton of chips but enough to work with a little). After about 10 seconds I moved all in and he instantly called. Uh oh. I was hoping to see AK again, but instead he showed me 99 and took most of my chips. I know this was the right play and my opponent easily could have had plenty of hands that he would have folded or plenty of hands that I would be a favorite against (in fact if he had anything but a pair bigger than 77 I was ahead). I spent the next 30 hands or so looking for ANYTHING to move all in with and managed to steal the blinds a few times, but of course I had to go right back through them again. Finally with about 1200 chips left I picked up A8 of spades in late position. One player just called the big blind and I moved all in. After asking for a count of my chips he called with A 10. The flop was 9 10 J giving me a straight draw and some hope, but no help arrived and I was out.

Event #12 recap preview

Get ready for a preview of the recap! I had another mid stream exit today (it seems like everyday I went broke in round 4, damit!). I'm going to go have dinner and a few drinks now, but I'll write a recap either later tonight or tomorrow along with a few thoughts about how things have gone so far, what I need to work on and just what the hell happened. Remember there's still hope -the $10,000 main event starts July 28th. Hopefully I've been saving up all my good luck for "the big one."

Today 3 years ago

On July 7th 2003 I had my first day as a professional poker player. I won he first hand I played that day with four aces. I won $98 and left the casino feeling like a million bucks. In the three years since I've had plenty of good days and bad, but I've had 34 winning months and only 2 losing months (September of 05 and March of 06). I tell everyone who'll listen that I have the best job in the world. After all if I was retired or had tens of millions of dollars I'd still spend a great deal of my time playing poker. Hopefully today will be just as revolutionary and today 3 years ago.

Event #12 preview

Sorry about the lack of Event# 11 preview and thanks to Jen for putting one together at the last minute. Event #12 is a $2,500 No Limit hold 'em event. Last year this event had 1,056 entrants (featuring a special appearance by yours truly) with 1st place of $594,960, 9th place was $48,575 and 100th was $2,670 (My research tells me 250th place pays nothing!) I think since today's event was limit, the last no limit under $5,000 was Event #6, and all of the no limit events have been much bigger this year, we can expect 1,200-1,300 players. This is my last shot until the main event so I hope it's a good one. Without a doubt I'm due for some good luck. Maybe I'll try putting on my socks inside out and see what happens.

As you may have guessed I'm not going to play Saturday's event which is $1,000 buy in with rebuys. The way this tournament works (all rebuy tournaments work similarly) is you start with 1,000 in chips and any time you have 1,000 or less you can buy another 1,000 chips for $1,000. So when you sit down most people will immediately buy another 1,000. If you go broke or get back below 1000 chips you can buy more. You can do this as many times as you want you just have to pay for it. You can imagine what the players who don't care about the money (but want desperately want the bracelet) do to accumulate chips while they have the chance. Last year in the $5,000 with rebuys Daniel Negranu did 22 rebuys which cost him $5,000 each! After the first 2 hours all of the insanity ends, but they give you one more chance to buy chips (called an add on) no matter how many you have. So if you want to compete you are looking at at least a $3,000 commitment and if you lose with a big hand early it could easily be $5,000 or even $7,000. I don't think things have been going well enough for me to put this kind of cash on the line.

Event #11 recap plus a comment answer or two

Today's event was $1,500 limit hold 'em and featured what will almost certainly the weakest field of the entire WSOP. The reasoning behind this assertion has three parts. Weaker players play in lower buy-in events, limit hold 'em is less popular among the best players, and most importantly there was another event ($5,000 buy-in Omaha Hi-Lo) that also took place today. For any of the top players in the world (even the one's who don't excel at Omaha) it's an easy decision to play for more money against a field of 200 than 700 for less. Winning a bracelet is paramount for the top players so getting a chance against a smaller field is the way to go for almost all of them. Sadly I was unable to capitalize on this situation.

Things started out fast and furious today. My first table had two insane players. One said he wanted to triple up or go broke as quickly as possible so he could play a $1,000 no limit tournament at the Bellagio that started at 2 p.m. Another said he told his friends he was going to play every hand until he went broke or had a big pile of chips. These guys were in almost every pot and their lose style encouraged other players (rightly so) to get involved in more pots. I found myself getting plenty of good cards early, but I kept alternating between winning a small pot and losing a big one. At the end of round 1 after playing what felt like a thousand hands I found myself staring at the exact same pile of 1500 chips that I started with.

At the beginning of round two with the limits at 50/100 things started to pick up for me. I raised to 100 with As Qs and got called by three players in the field plus the big blind. The flop was 2d 4s 7s. Even though I didn't have anything yet I had 9 spades, 3 Q's and 3 A's left in the deck that would probably make me a winner (8 of the spades would give me the best possible hand - the nuts) and with two cards to come I'd catch one of those 15 cards a shade over 50% of the time. I bet out 50 and got called by the button and the big blind. The turn was the 9h. The pot was already pretty big so I didn't think I could get rid of both of my opponents with a bet and there was a chance I might get a free look at the river if I passed on my chance to bet. I checked, the button bet 100, the big bind called and I called as well. The river was the 9s and after I bet out 100 the button quickly raised me. I watched the big blind fold and gave some thought to reraising, but thinking he might have 44 or 77 I just called. I showed my ace high flush and he showed me 5s 2s! This guy had called my preflop raise with 5 2 and he wasn't even one of the guys trying to go broke!

A little while later I caught another break. One player open called 50 from thirs position and I called behind him with Qs 9s. This is the kind of hand you'd never play in no limit, but in a limit game at a lose table, it can show some profit. We took the flop 5 way for one bet and I was happy to see a jack high flop with two spades. The small blind (mister 5 2) bet out 50 and I was the only one to call. The turn was a red K, he bet again and I raised him. Huh? What did you have again? Q 9? Ok just checking. Although this guy was playing super lose he was not an idiot (in fact I'd played against him in LA twice) and I figured if he didn't have anything I could get him to fold his hand. Plus if my bluff failed I still had a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw and if one of them hit, he would have a hard time putting me on Qs 9s since I raised him on the turn. He just called and the river was a small spade. Not thinking I'd made a flush, he fired out again and I quickly raised him. He called, showed me KJ (top two pair) and I took down the pot. My raise on the turn not only got another bet into the pot at that point, but also allowed me to earn another bet on the river that I might not have won otherwise (he almost certainly would have just check called the river fearing I'd been on a flush draw if I'd just called the turn). Every bet counts and missing out on an extra bet is the same as calling before the flop with 7 2 (actually worse because you could always hit a miracle flop with 7 2 and missing a extra bet is worth nothing).

I went on break with 3000 chips and when I came back things got even better. I won a nice pot when after making an unsuccessful bluff on the turn (the board was 4 5 6 7 and I had AQ) I rivered a pair of Q's and beat someone's 10 10. Shortly after that I won another pot which was apparently totally unmemorable, but none the less brought my stack up to 4,500 chips. Unfortunately after that the wheels came off the bus. I'd lost a fair amount of chips a little at a time and was down to about 3000 when I got a look at a flop for free in the big blind with 6 4. We took the flop 4 way and I was pleased to see 6d 4d 2h on the board. We were in round 4 with the limits at 150/300 and I bet out 150. My hand was almost certainly the best at this point, but it was very vulnerable and I needed to make anyone pay to out draw me. I got two callers and the turn was the Jd. I didn't like it. It was certainly possible that one of my callers had been on a flush draw and had made it so I checked. The player on the button bet out 300 and I was the only caller. The way he looked at the board when he J hit made me think he didn't have a flush and I hoped that he'd just hit a J. The river was a black 10 and I checked and called again. The button turned over 9d 7d and I sighed as I folded my hand.

A few minutes later a hand came up that I know I misplayed. I'd been getting really crappy cards for the past hour or so and had been doing little, but folding. Hoping that the other players would remember this and respect a raise coming from me, I made it 300 to go with Qd 10c two off the button. The player on the button made it 450 and even though I was certain I was behind, no matter what he had I only had to call 150 more with a chance to win the 975 already in the pot. The flop came down Qc 7c 3c. I had top pair and a 10 high flush draw and I decided to go for the check raise. I checked, he bet, I raised, and to my dismay he thought for a moment and reraised. I hoped he either had a flush draw or a pair, but not both. I called his reraise and the turn was a blank. I checked and called, and then did it again even though I got no help from the river. My opponent turned over two black aces and took the pot while I was left thinking "what the hell just happened." I lost 1500 chips on a hand that I easily could have thrown away before the flop. I won't go into all of the permutations of how I could have played this differently, but believe me there are a ton and just about all of them are better than how I played it. I suppose you could say it was unlucky that I ran into a such a good hand, but at the very least I'm supposed to recongnize when I'm so badly beaten. In fact if you'd stopped the hand in the middle and asked me if I thought this guy was bluffing or weak I would have said almost certainly not. So why did I keep putting more money into the pot? Instead of stopping to think things through at every juncture I just sort of went on auto pilot. I can justify every move I made, but I know I can play much better than I did on that hand. On a normal day playing online, I play somewhere between 300 and 400 hands an hour (4-6 games at a time) so I'm used to making split second decisions all day long. In live tournaments there's no need to rush and I try to remind myself to take my time, but sometimes it's hard to slow down.

I missed a few more flops, paid a few more blinds and found myself with only 475 chips. I picked up A 7 in the cutoff (one off the button) and raised to 300. The small blind thought for about 15 seconds looking like he wanted to reraise and then just called. The big blind, however made it 3 bets and I went all in for 475. The flop came down 2 3 7 and both players checked. Great! Maybe they both have big cards. The turn was an 8 and the first player bet and got raised. Uh oh, I need help. The river was an ace. Surely I have them beat now. Following some more fireworks on the river, the first player turned up A 8 for a bigger two pair and the other player turned up 77 and took the whole pot. I walked out to have an early dinner wondering how I could have blown through 4500 chips in the last hour playing limit.

Now to answer a few of Mike's questions and address one of Jakes comments. The reason why I'm not playing in any of the shoot out events, even though they should be my specialty, is a matter of scheduling. In a shoot out, each table starts with 10 players and they play down to 1 (sometimes it's more than one but in a true shoot out it's only one). The winners of each table are then combined into new tables where they do the same thing and this process continues until you're left with one table where they play for the title. My bread and butter is tournaments that start with 9 or 10 players and play down to 1 (only the ones I play pay 3 places). I've played over 5,000 of them and whenever other forms of poker turn a little sour I always go back to this format where I know I can kill the competition (it's tough for some players to shift gears as as players are eliminated -playing 9 handed is different than playing 8 handed which is different than 7 handed and so on). I'd like to play one of the shoot outs, but they are at wierd times and I chose the times of my trips to minimize down time and play the most events in the shortest amount of time.

As far as the house rake here at the WSOP goes they are taking 9% off the top of every prize pool (except the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event which is only 6%), but you pay in even numbers. For those of you who don't know most of the time a tournament which is nominally $1,000 will actually cost you something like $1,080 and the $80 will go to the house. For simplicity the same tournament here is $1,000 to enter but only $910 goes to the prize pool. In this case I think 9% is a little too much since the Rio and it's parent company Harrah's are making a fortune in advertising dollars, money from ESPN for the rights to air the WSOP and money earned in the super packed Casino during the 6 weeks of the WSOP (and even a splash in the restaurants and other services at the Rio). With that said, they are running a totally first class event and it takes a ton of people and resources to make that happen. The money they are taking from the prize pools isn't close to covering all of those costs, but they are still getting rich off the WSOP. Every person playing in these events has a roll of hundreds in their pocket that any normal person would be afraid to carry around. A lot of them carry around $1,000 and $5,000 chips, because $100 bills are too bulky and ALL of these people like to gamble! Shit, I bet 9% of every prize pool gets blown back the next day after every event when people are celebrating or trying to get even.

On another note Jake asked about people dressing up like fools and I saw a whole crew today. A few minutes after the tournament a half dozen guys in bright purple, electric yellow, and neon blue valure matching cowboy pimp suits walked into the room. They had on oversized hats made of the same material as their suits and wore big Elvis style sun glasses. Also all of their cuffs, collars and a rim around their hats was white and black leopard print. There were 3 purples and only 1 yellow so I suspect the rest of the crew might have been somewhere else. A few of the guys at my table made comments like "hey is there a new gay strip club that just opened around here?" Dressing up in Vegas is fun, but noon is a little early if you ask me.

Event #11 Review

Some bad news, I just heard from Dave and he's been eliminated. He's going to get something to eat and tell us all about it later tonight.

Event #11 Preview/Update

Since Dave didn't put up his usual event preview for today, I figured I'd post the info for everyone.

Today's event is a $1500 Limit Hold'em event. It started at 12:00 this afternoon with 713 players. Last year the winner was Eric Froehlich, who set the record for youngest person to win a World Series bracelet, at 21 years and 3 months. First was $361,910, 9th was $28,950, and 100th was $1590.

Dave talked to EB during the first break, and at that time Dave had doubled up to around $3000 in chips, so things are starting out well. The second break should be around 4:30, and EB will probably talk to him again then, and he'll post a comment here to tell you the details of what's going on so far!