The World Championship of Onine Poker (WCOOP)

The WCOOP is the largest and most prestigious set of poker tournaments in online poker. Much like the WSOP the, WCOOP grows a little bit every year. When they started running the WCOOP in 2002 there were only a handful of events and first place in the main event was only $65,000. Two years ago, the first year that I played, there were 15 events and last year there were 18 with a main event first prize of over $600,000. This year there will be 23 tournaments (starting on September 14th) with buy ins ranging from $215 on up to $5,200. Here is a link to the full schedule of events.

I'm not sure how much I'm going to invest in this years WCOOP or how many events I'm going to play. Some of it will depend on how my results are between now and the middle of September and we'll have to see how having a new baby around impacts our finances. If someone dropped $100,000 in my lap right now, I'd play 15 events with buy ins totaling about $8,000. If I don't have anyone investing, I'll probably play 7 events with buy ins totaling around $2,000.

I expect that other people will have some interest in betting on me, even though I haven't exactly brought home the bacon for my backers in the past. Since I'm interested in playing as many events as possible, I'll gladly except backing from anyone for pretty much any amount. If you're someone out there like Tom (Hey Tom) and you want to take a $100 shot so that reading this blog is more interesting for a few weeks in September, send me an e-mail (wesdave1279@yahoo.com) and you can join the team of people with financial interest my 2007 WCOOP.

Unlike the WSOP where I've pretty much gotten my ass handed to me, I've done pretty well in the WCOOP in the past. I've made the money in about 20% of the events I've entered and I've had a few where I was knocking on the door of the big money when I got eliminated. It's important for my long term career to keep trying with these big tournaments and if I keep trying eventually I'll have another really big hit like I did in August 2005. It would also be nice to win some money for the poor saps who've been striking out along with me for the past few sets of big tournaments. I'll have more on the WCOOP and my plan when the time gets a little closer.

Thinking Long Term

I am terrible at thinking long term. When I'm having a losing day (or sometimes even a losing hour) it gives me almost no comfort to think back on all the success I've had in the past and all the money I've won in my lifetime. I want to win now and as soon as the dollars hit my account I feel like that's where they should stay. Lately, I've been avoiding looking at my account balance as I play during the day so while I usually have a sense of how I've been doing, I don't know exactly how much I'm winning or losing. This seems to keep me in a better frame of mind and stops me from sweating every dollar. Even though I know I shouldn't look, it's almost impossible to stave off curiosity for more than a few hours.

Today, I had a somewhat shocking and perplexing day. After starting the month off with 7 straight good winning days (and two days off), I had my worst day of the year today. Where the hell did this run of terrible luck come from? I don't feel like I played any different today although I'm sure I made my share of mistakes. For the most part it just seemed like every time I made a good hand, someone else made a great one. Unfortunately, making big lay downs isn't one of my strengths and I really got punished my making second best hands.

At the start of July if you told me I'd be winning as much as I am for the month at this point, I gladly would have taken it. But, since I had so much more 8 hours ago it really doesn't make me feel much better to think about the fact that I'm still having a very good month so far. It's critical that I book a win tomorrow even if it's a small one otherwise my morale is going to start suffering and when that happens it becomes really difficult to play all day and play well. It seems like whenever I go into a day thinking that I lose 2 or 3 big hands in the first 10 minutes of my day. Hopefully, tomorrow will be the start of new streak.

This and That

One of the things that sucks about my job is I don't get holidays off. I read an article in the paper the other day that said that most people in France get 20 f-ing holidays a year on top of whatever other vacation they get. Lucky bastards! With the exception of the major holidays, I usually discover that I'm in the midst of a holiday at 1:00 p.m. when I check to see how our stocks did and I see that the market was closed.

Today it took me a few minutes to figure out why there were twice as many games running as there would be on a normal Wednesday. Of course, almost everyone was home from work and what better way to kill some time than with a little online poker. I've learned over the past few years that the 4th of July is one of the days when the total nut balls come flying out of the wood work. With the exception of the day after Thanksgiving, you'll find more people who don't have a clue what the hell they are doing playing poker on the 4th. While it makes the games a little better, it also makes them more volatile and a little more stressful. At the very least I hope the other regular players got their bankrolls beefed up today with a bit of extra dough so they can slowly lose it back to me in the coming weeks.

In online poker ban news, the San Francisco Chronicle ran a huge article that took up 3/4 of the front of the technology section a few days ago. What was great about it was based on how the article read it seemed like the paper was in favor of fully legal online gambling and that anyone who opposed it was a freedom hating idiot. It wasn't until close to the end of the article that they even mentioned the reasoning behind the ban and they did it in a lackluster way. I've discovered that the most recent rallying cry of the Poker Players Alliance as other opponents of the ban as well as the congressmen who've written bills to repeal the ban is "Adult Americans should be able to spend their money however they want." Makes perfect sense to me. Apparently the first bill (I think there are actually a few) to repeal the ban and make online poker totally legal and regulated in the U.S. was submitted in April and is in committee , but there wasn't any mention of when the house will vote on it.

I don't want to get too riled up and go on and on, but I will mention one more thing about the ban. One of the main things that the opponents of online poker say over and over is that young people are the real victims. They're damaging their financial future and losing what little money they have gambling and the government needs to save them. I've read this a few places and I always think that credit cards are 10 times worse than gambling. How many people do you know who've lost any significant amount of money gambling? Probably not too many. Now how many people do you know (especially young people) who have bought a ton of shit they can't afford using their credit card and spent thousands of dollars on interest in the following years? Almost everyone falls into that trap at some point, but I don't see the government trying to save us all from ourselves by making it hard to get a credit card.

Now that I have my little rant out of the way I can tell you I actually had a pretty nice day today winning just under $500. What makes it all the sweeter is I was losing over $700 at one point early in the day. So far July is looking nice.

A Strong Poker Day

The system I've been using over the past few months is pretty simple. I've made a few adjustments here and there and found that my best bet seems to be playing in $2/$4 blinds games, buying in for $125 (the max buy in is $400 and that's what the majority of the other players do), and leaving if I get my stack up over $200. There are usually 10-15 games running at the $2/$4 limit and after being out of a game for 30 minutes you can rejoin a game you've already played in and buy in for any amount (If you wand to return earlier than 30 minutes you're forced to buy in for at least the amount you left with).

Normally there are plenty of games going, but to make sure I don't end up on a waiting list for a game I've just been in I make a note on my dry erase board of the time and the table name every time I leave a game. Usually I've got two or three names on my board and sometimes if things are going really well I'll have 4 or 5 tables that I've left within 30 minutes. Today I looked over at my board during a crazy hot stretch and saw that I'd left TEN tables in a twenty minute span and even more amazingly I had at least $250 in all of them when I got up.

When I stopped for lunch today I'd played 1,800 hands and I was up about $50. I played another 1,200 hands and finished the day ahead $1,700. It was a sweet run and a great day overall. Also if you look at the post below you can read an article I wrote for Cardschat.com (it's not up yet) which explains a little more of the logic behind buying in short.

How Much Should I Buy in for in a No Limit Cash Game?

The vast majority of online no limit cash games have a maximum buy in, a minimum buy in and what amounts to a suggested buy in. When you sit down there are usually two check boxes: one that conveniently allows you to buy in for the maximum (usually 100 times the big blind) and one where you can type in another amount. The “other amount” area usually has a number that’s equal to 60 big blinds pre-entered which the websites have put in as a suggested amount that you buy in for. Of course if you try to buy in for a minuscule amount you’ll be kindly informed that you are below the minimum which is almost always 20 times the big blind.

So which amount is right and additionally should you leave if you hit a certain amount? The answer is the same as the answer to many other poker questions; it depends. Some players will have the best results buying in for the maximum and others will have better results buying in for less. Some players should hit the road when they reach a certain amount and others should never get up because they’ve accumulated a given number of chips. The important part is to do some critical thinking about what your strengths and weaknesses are and decide what works best for you.

Conventional wisdom says that you should buy in for the maximum and accumulate as many chips as you can in an effort to have every other player covered. The thinking here is that when you get that big hand that you’ve been dreaming about and someone else makes a slightly worse hand (or tries an ill-advised bluff) you’ll make the most you could possibly make. The main disadvantage is sometimes you’ll be the one with the second best hand that’s tough or impossible to fold and you’ll end up losing more than if you had fewer chips. The questions is, will there be more times that you double up or take an opponents entire stack than times that you lose all of your chips or allow an opponent to double up?

There are other advantages to having a huge pile of chips in front of you. While it’s nice to have people bluff at you when you’ve got a great hand, in general it’s easier to beat opponents who straightforwardly bet their good hands and check their weak ones. When you have a ton of chips your opponents will be less likely to bluff at you because they’ll think you can afford to call them down. On the other side of the coin, your bluffs will be more effective on earlier betting rounds because even if you’re betting relatively small amounts, your opponents know that in order to call you all the way down they might have to put in more chips than they want to. Frequently they’ll decide it’s not worth it and give up when they may have called you down if you had fewer chips.

Another strategy is to buy in for a smaller amount to limit your risk. In the old days before online poker, if you were winning you’d be stuck with whatever amount you had in front of you since you couldn’t take chips off the table. Now there are so many games that if you want to, you can leave one game if you’re ahead and immediately buy into another for a lesser amount. For example, if you decide that it makes sense for you to always have between 40 and 70 big blinds, you can buy in for 40 and if you find yourself with more than 70 you can leave that game and buy into another for 40. The main advantage of this strategy is limiting your fluctuations. No one terrible hand is going to wipe out an entire great day’s worth of profit or put you in a huge hole.

Of course there are other advantages for buying in small. You’ll find that it’s easier to get paid off on your good hands. Since your opponents will know they’re only liable for the amount you have in front of you, often times they’ll take ill-advised risks. Furthermore, many players have the perception that if you haven’t bought in for the maximum then you must be a weak player. Anytime your opponents have misconceptions about your abilities, it works to your advantage. It can be less stressful when you have less on the line and it can make those small pots and blind steals seem more significant.

Deciding how much to buy in for requires that you look at your strengths and weaknesses. If one of your strengths is making big lay downs, then having more chips is less dangerous than if you’re a player who’s never folded top pair in your life. Maybe chopping out a bunch of small pots with well timed bluffs is what you do best. In that case there’s no reason to open yourself up to more risk by having a big stack. If you go on tilt every time you lose a huge pot, you’ll be better off having fewer chips and keeping the pots smaller. While half the players in every game think they’re the best player in the game, actually being the best player in the game means you’ll be better off with more chips. Another factor in this decision is the size of your bankroll in relation to what size games you find interesting. You can play in bigger games with a smaller bankroll if you buy in small.

If you buy in for the maximum is it still possible to have so many chips that you should get up? Sure it is. Most players have a range in which they feel comfortable. Maybe that range is 100 to 200 times the big blind for you or maybe it’s anything up to 500 times the big blind. When you start playing hands differently than you would strictly because you’re worried about losing all of the chips in front of you than it’s best to get up and jump into another game for a lesser amount. For example, if you’ve decided that raising to 3 times the big blind when you’re first in with pocket aces is the best way to play them and all of a sudden you decide to open raise to 6 times the big blind because you’re worried about taking a bad beat, you’ve got a problem. You don’t want to give up equity because having so many chips is making you nervous.

When you look at a typical online no limit game you’ll find that most players buy in for the maximum, but many of them would be better off buying in for less. Don’t let your ego get the best of you and buy in for more than the optimal amount just because you feel like you have to. On the other hand, if you’re used to buying in for less, maybe you’d be better off buying in for the maximum. The important thing is to think about why you’re buying in for the amount you do. If you’re not sure how much is right for you (and probably even if think you’re sure) try experimenting with various amounts and let your results dictate what you should do in the future.

June Recap and July Goals

June turned out to be a pretty good month. I effectively won the same amount that I did in May (which was my best month so far this year) but I took the first 5 days off for my trip to the WSOP and another 3 days for our baby shower weekend extravaganza. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that making the same amount of money while working 3/4 the time is a good thing. I ended up falling a little short of my goals, but ended up playing about 45,000 hands for the month.

In July, I'll once again try to hit 60,000 hands in a month. My wife Jen and I are due to have our first baby on August 2nd so there's a fair chance that I'll get derailed by an early baby arrival. If the baby comes in early August I should be able to hit my target without too much trouble. I'm a little disappointed in myself that I can't seem to quite hit the hand goals that I've been setting for myself, but I'm pleased that I've been doing better than I thought I might be able to do in terms of dollars per hand. Hopefully I can continue to improve on both an knock out a $10,000 month.

Hours Not Results

I had a strong day today. I played over 3,500 hands (a ton for one day) and won back about 80% of the money I lost on Saturday. Here's another article that I wrote for Cardschat.com. For those of you who were there you'll realize that the events that I talk about didn't really go down how I described and are rather a combination of my first trip to the Oaks and my first trip to Cache Creek.

When to Stay and When to Leave

I clearly remember the first time I played poker in a casino. I was 20 years old and I was heading to an Indian casino to play $3/$6 limit hold ‘em when my regular game was a 20 cent/ 40 cent game with my buddies. I made the trip with my first poker mentor who was my friend’s boss. His normal game was $15/$30 or $30/$60 and as we walked in the door he asked me, “Are you going to play until you win or lose a certain amount or are you going to play for a given amount of time?” I was so terrified and excited by the anticipation of playing in such a “big game” that I really didn’t have any clue what to say. But after a minute I replied, “If I get to the point where I’m ahead $100 I think I’ll get up.” To my credit $100 would have increased my bankroll by 50%, but I was still making a mistake that many players make. You want to play hours, not results.

We’ve all been guilty of using the “hit and run” or “stop win” strategy. After jumping into a game and picking up a few quick pots it can be tempting to lock up that profit and go do something else, but there are a few reasons why you should keep playing. The first and most important reason is that it’s much easier to play your best when you’re winning. Generally you’ll be more patient, more confident, and probably be having more fun. No one is 100% tilt proof and most of us have some significant trouble keeping our emotions in check. It’s much, much easier to stay on track when you’re ahead as opposed to behind.

Furthermore, winning is a sign that you’re in a game you can beat. Of course if you’ve just sat down and made two full houses and a flush in the first five hands then who knows. But if you’ve been playing for two or three hours and have significantly more than you started with then it’s more likely that you’re in a good game than a tough game.

On the other hand, if you’re losing, it’s easy to convince yourself that it’s okay to make plays that you know deep down are losing plays. When you’re losing it’s harder to stay patient, losing is never fun, and you might be in a game that you have little chance of beating.

The same players who tend to hit and run don’t like to call it quits when they’re losing. We’ve all thought to ourselves, “If I could just get even I’d leave this game in a second,” but you don’t want to play for hours and hours longer than you’d planned in a quest to get even for that one session.

The best thing to do is decide about how long you want to play and play for about that long. You don’t need to say “I’m going to play for exactly 8 hours today” and quit the second those 8 hours are up. But if that’s your plan you shouldn’t leave after 4 hours or shouldn’t stay for 12.

Of course, there are a few exceptions. The first one is while you don’t want to set a limit on your wins, setting a limit on your losses can be a good idea. My personal threshold when I’m playing limit hold’em is 50 big bets. While it’s very rare that I find myself down that much, when it happens I know that I won’t be in a state of mind to play my best and I’m better off calling it a day. If you’re more tilt prone, 35 big bets might be a better guideline. The key is that you don’t want to bury yourself so much in one session that it takes you several great winning sessions to dig yourself out.

Another exception is when you’ve been on an extended losing streak. No matter how skilled, every player runs into some significant losing streaks and sometimes it feels like you can’t win no matter what you do. If you’ve been getting killed for a string of sessions in a row, sometimes it can help your state of mind to book a win.

You might also push the limits of how long you’re willing to stay if you are in a fantastic game. If you’re just about to leave and all of a sudden one of the worst players in town sits down with two of his equally skilled friends, they all order a shot of tequila and tell you about how they just hit it big betting on a horse race then it’s time to call home and say you won’t be back for a while. On the other hand if you feel irritable, you have something on your mind, or you just can’t play your best for whatever reason, then leaving early should be something to consider.

While there are a few exceptions, your best bet is playing hours not results. It would be great if we could only play when we’re ahead, but playing while you’re behind is part of the game. Don’t sell yourself short and leave a good situation too early and don’t bury yourself with such a big loss that it takes you weeks to recover.

What happened to me in my first trip to play $3/$6? It turned out the decision on when to leave was easy. When I ran out of chips and opened my wallet only to discover there wasn’t any money left, they wouldn’t let me play anymore. :)

Playing for a living

I've written a few more articles that I've gotten paid for over the past couple months. Rather than give you a link I figured I'd just cut and paste so anyone who happens who searches for key words on Google or Yahoo will find their way to my blog. I'm going to try to put one up every day this week since I've gotten at least 5 more published online and I haven't included anything about them. Here is the first which might be the best.

10 Questions to Ask Yourself Before Going Pro

Almost everyone who has played poker seriously and doesn’t love their job has at least thought about playing for a living. For me, it was the best decision I ever made. For other players attempting to play for a living is detrimental. If you’re thinking about going pro there are 10 key questions to ask yourself:

How thick is my bankroll?

What are my expenses?

How easy would it be to return to my old job?

Do I have a strong support system in place?

What are the consequences of failure?

How much data do I have about my past results?

Is playing for a living going to have a negative impact on my health or social life?

Can I handle the pressure?

Am I ready to write the IRS a check every three months?

How much do I love to play?

How thick is my bankroll?

Debate is always raging about how much money you need to play at a given level without a significant risk of going broke. While most casual players completely ignore bankroll requirements, if you’re going to play for a living you need to have enough money in reserve to ride out the short term fluctuations. In my opinion a solid bankroll for limit hold’em is about 300 big bets, for NL hold’em about 5,000 big blinds, for SNGs it’s about 100 buy-ins, and for multi-table tournaments it’s around 250 buy-ins. Of course having more is always better than having less. The most important thing is to have enough money so you feel comfortable and don’t feel like you’re in danger of going broke.

What are my expenses?

This question can be a little tricky. When most people are working out a budget, they have a tendency to include only the bear minimum. It’s important that you make a realistic list of your monthly expenses that includes some margin for unexpected events and splurging. Remember this is your life we’re talking about here. You’re still going to want to buy new things and go out and have fun. You’re still going to buy birthday gifts and holiday presents and take vacations. You might also have to pay for private health insurance. If you’re living on cold cereal and don’t have an extra ten bucks to go to the movies you’ll be better off with a traditional job. A good way to come up with an assessment is to look back at your bank statements and credit card bills (I know you won’t have them, but if you call your bank and credit card company or go online you should be able to get those records easily) and find out how much you actually spent in the past 6 months or year. Use that number as a baseline.

How easy would it be to return to my old job?

If your boss is one of your best friends and you expect she’ll say “you’ll always have a job here” as she wipes away a tear and hugs you as you leave on your last day of work, you can stretch it a little more on some of the other 9 questions. On the other hand, if you know your boss is going to kick you in the butt and say “you’ll never work in this town again!” as you leave, you better be sure you’re going to make it as a poker player. Everyone has some sense about how marketable their job skill set is, and if it’s going to be hard for you to find another job as good as the one you have, then you should be much more cautious before quitting.

Do I have a strong support system in place?

Part of playing poker is having losing sessions. Sometimes when those losing sessions get strung together it can very difficult emotionally. Having a supportive spouse or group of friends can make a big difference in your mental health when you’re getting killed at the tables. Conversely, if every time you come home after a loss your spouse says “Oh no! You lost again! How could you do that you idiot?” it will be tough to keep yourself in a positive, confident frame of mind. Of course, if you happen to be someone who’s very even keeled and takes losses very logically as part of the game, then having a strong support system is less important.

What are the consequences of failure?

Think about what’s going to happen if you don’t make it. No one goes into professional poker thinking that they are going to fail, but plenty of people who try just can’t make enough money to live on. If you go broke are you going to find yourself $10,000 in debt working at a fast food job wondering what the hell went wrong? Or are you going to be disappointed (but not crushed) having blown through your bankroll, but otherwise be in good financial shape with a solid job? If you’re supporting a family think about what the consequences will be for them if things don’t go how you hope they will. You should always have a backup plan and decide how far you’re going to go. If you decide that you’re going to try to play poker for a living even if it means blowing through every dime you can get your hands on then at least acknowledge that fact. A healthier option would be to decide how much of your net worth you’re willing to commit or how far you’ll go into debt ahead of time. When you hit that limit, it’s time to get a job. Remember you don’t just get one shot. If you go broke, you can always rebuild and try again somewhere down the road. Don’t bury yourself so much that you can never recover just because you can’t admit that you’re not good enough yet to play poker for a living. Go back to the drawing board, work on your game and when you have enough money saved again, give it another shot.

How much data do I have about my past results?

The longer I play the longer I find it takes to get a realistic assessment of your hourly rates. If you’re winning over a short stretch it’s more likely that you’re a winner and if you’re losing it’s more likely that you’re a losing player, but to be able to predict your future results with any precision you need a ton of data. If you’ve been playing 20 hours a week for 5 years and have a spreadsheet with the exact amount of every win and loss then it’s a good bet that you know how much you can expect to make. If you’ve been playing every other Saturday for 6 months and don’t have any written records who knows what you can expect. Make sure you have records that back up what you think about your abilities and don’t jump to any conclusions because you’ve hit a hot streak. When some players win a tournament or have a few winning sessions in a row all of a sudden they think they’re Phil Ivey. Don’t get swept up and do something rash because you’ve been running good.

Is playing for a living going to have an impact on my health or social life?

Playing poker for a living can be hard on your body as well as your mind. It’s a pretty sedentary job and if you’re not careful you could find yourself putting on a few pounds. It doesn’t help that finding healthy food options in and around casinos can be a challenging task. Furthermore, poker can be a high stress business and if you don’t manage that stress well it can have a negative effect on your health.

Your social life might be affected as well. If the best games are on Friday and Saturday nights (or at night on the weekdays) you may find yourself having to choose between making strong money and spending time with your friends and family. Make sure you’re willing to play at the times it’s best to play, not just the times that are most convenient

Can I handle the pressure?

Losing is never fun. But when you’re counting on your winnings to pay your everyday expenses, losing or even breaking even can be a disaster. The mailbox doesn’t stop filling up with bills, just because you haven’t made a flush draw it what seems like a month. If you keep losing it can feel like a tremendous weight and it’s hard to play your best when you feel like you have to win. Having a solid bankroll and some savings beyond that can help alleviate some of this pressure.

Am I ready to write the IRS a check every three months?

YOU HAVE TO PAY YOUR TAXES! Sure with all those cash transactions you could fudge things a little, but is it worth it? If the IRS nails you for income tax evasion (a felony) you will wish you’d never been born. Part of playing for a living is making quarterly payments to the IRS. It’s never fun and I’m sure if most people had to pay out of their pockets instead of getting the money withheld from their checks, they’d storm the capital building and we’d all have lower taxes. The good news is you get to deduct all kinds of stuff as business expenses. Get yourself a good accountant, keep a log of everything that could be remotely related to your playing career, and it doesn’t seem so bad. Make sure you can afford to pay your taxes and still make enough to live on.

How much do I love to play?

In my mind this is the most important question. If you’re going to play for a living you better L-O-V-E to play. You can’t kind of like to play or think poker is interesting. You’ve got to love it. Poker is a business where self motivation is a must. No one is going to make you play or tell you to go play. You have to do it on your own and it’s much, much easier if playing is what you want to do anyway. If you have a job and can think of two or three things that you’d rather do with your free time then play poker, you probably don’t love it enough. The reason why this is so important is no matter how much you like to play now, after playing everyday for 6 months or a year or 5 years it won’t be nearly as interesting and stimulating. So if you just like it now, in a year it will turn into a real grind. If you’re good at it, but don’t really enjoy playing, you’ll totally hate it in 6 months.

You don’t have to find yourself in the best case scenario with a huge bankroll, low expenses, a loving a supportive spouse, a steel will, years of records, and an intense passion for poker to make it work. But if you find yourself lacking in a few of these categories you might want to rethink going pro. They say “playing poker is a tough way to make an easy living.” There are plenty of pitfalls and traps, but if you’re good at it and enjoy it, it can be the best job in the world. If playing poker for a living is your dream, go for it! Just make sure you’re smart enough to go after that dream at the right time with the right preparation.

A massive correction

The streak is over in a big way. I had a fairly substantial loss on Friday and got totally rocked today. I can't even begin to describe the kind of bad luck I had today. It may have been the worst luck I've ever had over the span of 1,000 hands in my entire career. It was looking like this was going to be a banner month and it should still end up being good, but I'm feeling a little in shock right now. I'm taking the rest of the day off and tomorrow as well.

For the last 6 days of the month I am going to set a few goals and while I haven't been so good at hitting my goals in the past I am going to make these happen no matter what it takes! After all they're not that hard. The first part of the goal is to play 17,500 hands which works out to 3,500 hands a day for 5 days and one day off with one little caveat. If I hit plus $2,000 or minus $1,500 I'll stop for the day and count it as a full 3,500 hands. The second part of the plan is I'm going to work out 4 times during the 6 days. It shouldn't be too hard, but I always rationalize not working out when I spend all day playing and I've really been slacking off on my exercise regimen. Also, no drinking for the week. Between Vegas and Napa and having people over frequently and whatever I've been drinking too much lately and a week without having a drop seems like a good idea.

The best part about these goals is they aren't too much for me to handle. I feel like I should be able to do that much every week, but in practice I'm not particularly self motivated. Hopefully I'll be able to recover the money I've lost in the past two days over the next week and take a small step forward towards a healthier me.

Another Good Day

I had another winning day today. In fact it looked like it was going to be a monster day. Normally I win about one in every 11 pots. Nominally I should win one in every 9 pots since I'm one of nine players and we all get dealt the same cards in the long run. But since I'm more patient and selective, in practice it seems like I win about one in every 11. Another thing I've noticed after looking at the statistics that Pokerstars keeps track of is when I win more than 50% of the hands that go all the way to the showdown I'm usually ahead and when it's less than 50% I'm usually behind. On average I only make it to the showdown about 1 hand in 40.

With those things in mind the start that I had today was pretty amazing. After 100 hands (about 12 minutes) I looked at my stats and saw that I'd won 6 of 7 pots at the showdown and 25 pots overall! This put me ahead over $500 and for a while the good luck kept on coming. At one point I was ahead over $1,500, but after a few bad plays and a little bad luck I ended up finishing the day ahead $900.

This is my 11th winning day in a row the smallest of which was almost $200. I'm starting to think crazy thoughts like maybe I can go the whole month without having a losing day. I'm planning to play 8 more days this month so it seems very unlikely, but you never know.

I've played 14,000 hands of $2/$4 blinds this month and I'm winning 29 cents a hand (I've also played about 12,000 hands of $3/$6 which haven't gone as well, but have still been good)! If I could do that over the long run I could work 35 hours a week, take 8 weeks of vacation a year and make a quarter of a million dollars a year!!!

What's amazing is 29 cents a hand is nothing compared to the amount of money in play. If I could steal the blinds in a $2/$4 game (which nets me a whopping sum of $6) once every two rounds and then break even on everything else that would be 33 cents a hand. Pokerstars keeps track of and lists the average pot size for each individual game for the $2/$4 games it's usually in the $50 range and in the $3/$6 game it's usually in the $75 range. All I need is 30 cents a hand to drag $250,000 a year. It's possible that while I think I've been running good these past few months, maybe I've been running bad and now I'm hitting an average run of luck!