I pretty much took the day off today, but while sitting around on the couch I couldn't help but play a tournament or two. My only WCOOP related action was an $80 satellite to Sunday's $1,050 NL tournament.
We started with 66 players with the top 4 winning a seat. This wasn't a turbo tournament and with 15 minute limits it took a few hours for things to come to a head. With 14 players left the average stack was just over 7,000 and I had 6,500 chips. The blinds were 300/600 with a 50 chip ante when I picked up AQ of diamonds in early position. I raised to 1,800 and one player called behind me. The flop came down QJ9 with two clubs.
I had mixed feelings about this flop. On one hand I had top pair with top kicker. On the other with a bunch of big cards bunched close together I could be against a better hand or a big draw. I bet 2,400 figuring I might get action from a hand like AJ, AK, KQ or any hand with a T or two clubs. If I was up against a hand that had me beat, there was nothing I could do.
Unfortunately my opponent who had about 6,000 chips at the start of the hand moved all in and even though I didn't really like my hand any more I was committed to the hand since I'd already put so many chips in the pot. Sadly my opponent flipped over AA and took down the pot when no help came for me.
While only the top 4 spots paid $1,050, 5th-11th paid $80 and 12th paid $58. I was down to about 500 chips (less than one big blind) and no one else was under 4,000 so I figured the chance of losing 2 more opponents before I went broke was close to zero. But, then I picked up AA and my stack jumped to 1,700. A hand or two later I moved all in with KJ and got called by 66. I made a straight and was up over 4,000. Three people went broke, I stole the blinds a few times pushing my stack to over 6,000, and I thought I might stage a miraculous comeback.
Then I went broke. I moved all in with AT and ran into AK. Oh well. At least I got back the $80 that I invested.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
A Sub Par Effort
I ended up finishing 710th in today's $215 limit hold'em WCOOP event. I felt like I played great and got plenty of good cards for the first two and half hours or so. I had my starting stack of 3,000 up to about 7,500 at one point and was liking my chances of making it to the money. Then my run of good cards dried up, I overplayed a few hands and I found myself with fewer chips than I started to tournament with. Eventually as the limits increased and I got very short short stacked, I was forced to make a move with KQ and wound up against AQ. No miracles materialized and my WCOOP day was over.
No one hand in particular stands out to me, but it seemed like in the third hour I got plenty of hands like AK, AQ or KQ and never managed to make a pair. One thing that's a little different about playing limit poker tournaments is good luck early doesn't do much of anything for your overall chances (of course in no limit it's better to be lucky later on as well, but it's MUCH easier to make significant headway in the early rounds). If I'd had the crappy cards and bad luck in the first hour and the run of big pocket pairs and other solid cards that I had in the first hour in the third or fourth hour, then not only would I still be playing but I'd be in great shape.
In other poker news, I had one good result today and another almost. I played a few $60, 45 player turbo tournaments today and managed to win one outright. When we were down to 7 players everyone was about even. Then I busted two people and found myself with an overwhelming chip lead. At one point playing 5 handed I had 45,000 chips while all four of my opponents combined had 22,500. It was easy to grind them down and my victory was almost never in doubt. 1st place paid $770, but that was just one of seven $60 tournaments that I played so it's really not that exciting. It was fun though.
The almost came in a $22 with rebuys tournament. We started with 423 players and when we were down to 19 I had about 70,000 chips with the average stack around 50,000. I was in the big blind with A9 and blinds of 2,000/4,000. The small blind had about 30,000 and moved all in. I figured he could have just about anything and this was a good spot to take a risk. I called and he showed me J8. I was good until the river when an 8 showed up.
On the very next hand I was in the small blind with my remaining 40,000 chips and AK suited. The same guy moved all in (which was a little excessive) with QT. I instantly called. A 10 came on the flop and I was out in 19th. If I'd been able to win the first pot I would have been in 4th chip position and the second one would have put me in 7th or 8th. Either way I'd be in great shape to make the final table where first place paid $4,500 and anything in the top 5 was worth at least $900. Instead I only profited $56 (one more spot would have paid another $50 - not huge money, but enough to be annoyed about).
A few other things about this tournament irritate me a little. First of all it's not like the hands I lost to were anything special. Probably 80% of players would have just folded BOTH of them before the flop which would have saved me. Secondly it sucks to play 300+ hands over the course of more than 4 hours and get snapped off in two hands where you're ahead back to back after all that time. I guess I've had worse things happen to me 1,000 times in my poker career so it's really not a big deal, but it's never fun.
The best news is it seems like I'm really hitting my stride. Finishing 19th out of 423 and 1 of 45 is pretty good even if I didn't have a huge day monetarily (I won a few hundred though). If feel like if I keep giving myself chances I'll make more final tables and have more big pay days.
My next WCOOP action is going to be $215 no limit hold 'em with rebuys on Thursday. Here's a brief description of how rebuy tournaments work in case some of you aren't familiar with them. As long as you have the number of chips you stared with or less, you can buy more chips for the same cost as the original tournament buy in, less the juice. So in this case we'll start with 3,000 chips. Anytime I have 3,000 chips or less I can buy another 3,000 for $200. At the end of the first hour all players regardless of their chip stack can do a special rebuy called an"add on" where they get 5,000 chips for $200.
The classic strategy in rebuy tournaments is to rebuy as soon as you sit down and buy more chips any time it's legal to do so. Furthermore it almost always makes sense to do the add-on. If that's your plan you're looking at at least $615 and usually more like $815 or $1015. I still have $1,515.60 of the $2,000 bankroll that I have earmarked for the WCOOP and I'd like to hang on to as much as I can, so I'm going to play a little more conservatively. I'm just going to do the initial buy in and the add on. I'll have slightly fewer chips than most of my opponents, but I should get in for $415. If I go broke once early I'll do one rebuy and end up in for $615, but in the unlikely event that I go broke twice early, I'm just going to surrender.
I really want to play the $1,050 NL event next Sunday because 1st place in that event is going to be $500,000+ , but unless I make the money in one of these early event's I won't be able to swing it. I'm going to play $215 HORSE and $530 pot limit hold'em on Saturday for sure and I'm hoping I can at least make the money in one of those or Thursday's event. If not I'll probably take whatever I've got left and try to get in the $1,050 via satellite.
No one hand in particular stands out to me, but it seemed like in the third hour I got plenty of hands like AK, AQ or KQ and never managed to make a pair. One thing that's a little different about playing limit poker tournaments is good luck early doesn't do much of anything for your overall chances (of course in no limit it's better to be lucky later on as well, but it's MUCH easier to make significant headway in the early rounds). If I'd had the crappy cards and bad luck in the first hour and the run of big pocket pairs and other solid cards that I had in the first hour in the third or fourth hour, then not only would I still be playing but I'd be in great shape.
In other poker news, I had one good result today and another almost. I played a few $60, 45 player turbo tournaments today and managed to win one outright. When we were down to 7 players everyone was about even. Then I busted two people and found myself with an overwhelming chip lead. At one point playing 5 handed I had 45,000 chips while all four of my opponents combined had 22,500. It was easy to grind them down and my victory was almost never in doubt. 1st place paid $770, but that was just one of seven $60 tournaments that I played so it's really not that exciting. It was fun though.
The almost came in a $22 with rebuys tournament. We started with 423 players and when we were down to 19 I had about 70,000 chips with the average stack around 50,000. I was in the big blind with A9 and blinds of 2,000/4,000. The small blind had about 30,000 and moved all in. I figured he could have just about anything and this was a good spot to take a risk. I called and he showed me J8. I was good until the river when an 8 showed up.
On the very next hand I was in the small blind with my remaining 40,000 chips and AK suited. The same guy moved all in (which was a little excessive) with QT. I instantly called. A 10 came on the flop and I was out in 19th. If I'd been able to win the first pot I would have been in 4th chip position and the second one would have put me in 7th or 8th. Either way I'd be in great shape to make the final table where first place paid $4,500 and anything in the top 5 was worth at least $900. Instead I only profited $56 (one more spot would have paid another $50 - not huge money, but enough to be annoyed about).
A few other things about this tournament irritate me a little. First of all it's not like the hands I lost to were anything special. Probably 80% of players would have just folded BOTH of them before the flop which would have saved me. Secondly it sucks to play 300+ hands over the course of more than 4 hours and get snapped off in two hands where you're ahead back to back after all that time. I guess I've had worse things happen to me 1,000 times in my poker career so it's really not a big deal, but it's never fun.
The best news is it seems like I'm really hitting my stride. Finishing 19th out of 423 and 1 of 45 is pretty good even if I didn't have a huge day monetarily (I won a few hundred though). If feel like if I keep giving myself chances I'll make more final tables and have more big pay days.
My next WCOOP action is going to be $215 no limit hold 'em with rebuys on Thursday. Here's a brief description of how rebuy tournaments work in case some of you aren't familiar with them. As long as you have the number of chips you stared with or less, you can buy more chips for the same cost as the original tournament buy in, less the juice. So in this case we'll start with 3,000 chips. Anytime I have 3,000 chips or less I can buy another 3,000 for $200. At the end of the first hour all players regardless of their chip stack can do a special rebuy called an"add on" where they get 5,000 chips for $200.
The classic strategy in rebuy tournaments is to rebuy as soon as you sit down and buy more chips any time it's legal to do so. Furthermore it almost always makes sense to do the add-on. If that's your plan you're looking at at least $615 and usually more like $815 or $1015. I still have $1,515.60 of the $2,000 bankroll that I have earmarked for the WCOOP and I'd like to hang on to as much as I can, so I'm going to play a little more conservatively. I'm just going to do the initial buy in and the add on. I'll have slightly fewer chips than most of my opponents, but I should get in for $415. If I go broke once early I'll do one rebuy and end up in for $615, but in the unlikely event that I go broke twice early, I'm just going to surrender.
I really want to play the $1,050 NL event next Sunday because 1st place in that event is going to be $500,000+ , but unless I make the money in one of these early event's I won't be able to swing it. I'm going to play $215 HORSE and $530 pot limit hold'em on Saturday for sure and I'm hoping I can at least make the money in one of those or Thursday's event. If not I'll probably take whatever I've got left and try to get in the $1,050 via satellite.
WCOOP Event# 7 Start
WCOOP event #7 ($215 limit hold'em) started with 2,059 entrants 1st place of $80,795, 5th place of $18,407, 18th place of $2,347, 63rd place of $947 and 270th place of $411. The best thing about limit hold'em tournaments is you can't go broke on one hand early. In fact you'd really have to try to go broke during the first 2 hours. The downside is they feel like they take forever since not much happens at the beginning. I'll let you know how it all went down.
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Deal Making Thought Process
When I was playing my tournament on Saturday I had my good friend Matt (who is also a professional poker player) on the phone with me for the entire final table. When I mentioned suggesting a deal to the other players he pretty strongly advised me against it. Yesterday I got an e-mail from E.B. who is a former poker pro questioning my decision to make a deal also. We had a bit of a back and forth that I thought was worth posting which may address some similar questions that other people might be having as well.
Here's what E.B wrote:
I would estimate that more than half of the time I make it to heads up in the scenario in quention my opponents would bust one another rather than me busting one of them since they're likely to play looser than me. If that's true I'd have a greater than normal chance of finishing in second, but a lesser chance of winning outright. If that happened I'd be severely out chipped going into heads up play which would put me at much less than 50% to win.
I do think the notion of "If the deal is good for them, it must be bad for me" is a fair point. But I think a more fair description is, we're all agreeing to a deal that is neutral so none of us faces a negative outcome.
Interestingly enough, while my vast experience playing 3 handed is a strong asset in the situation in question, it's also what makes me want to make deals. I've been screwed so many times when I was sure I had first place locked up, that I know first hand how quickly things can go sour.
My next WCOOP event ($215 limit hold 'em) is tomorrow (Tuesday). For every WCOOP event they have a "second chance" tournament with the same game and structure that starts about 3 hours after the initial tournament goes off. Usually the second chance tournament is $215 regardless of the buy in of the initial event. In the past I've had great success playing this size tournament when it's limit hold 'em. I'd give it a 50% chance that I'll play the second chance event which I will count as WCOOP related as far as people who have a piece of my action are concerned. I'll let you know what happens.
Here's what E.B wrote:
First of all, congratulations… well done!
I just read your blog and I am wondering about the split. The chance of the short stack going belly-up pretty quick is obviously quite high. If you assume he is going to go broke (not a given, clearly), you’re risking $2500 to lock up $1300, and that is not even counting your slight chip advantage. Why do you think that was a good split for you?
I am not judging your decision; it was certainly yours to make. In fact, I am not even saying I think it is a mistake. Really I am just curious to understand your deductive process (which may have just been simply “I’ve had a rough run… ship the money and let’s not screw around”)
All in all, having to worry about whether you’re getting the best possible result out of your splits is kind of like having to pay a shitload in taxes: it isn’t a horrible problem to have. So keep it up; if you make $50K in September, we’ll come babysit so you guys can go out and celebrate. And in the meantime, enjoy having a 5 figure month when it’s halfway through!
EB
I think the biggest flaw with you're argument is the notion that the player with 200K is dead. He had over 6X the big blind (blinds of 15,000/30,000) which is plenty to maneuver with. If he doubles through me once we're both at 400K and the other player is at 600K. If the player who is roughly even with me (it was 590,000 to 600,000 which means I had him by 1/3 of one big blind or 1/5 of the smallest possible pot- effectively no advantage at all) gets me in just one hand I'm out. Even if no one doubles through me, if I go card dead for even a few hands or if my opponents pick up a strong run of cards everything could change. Three handed play is VERY volatile.
If you look at the precise numbers 3rd was $3,950, 2nd was $6,375, first was $10,125. and I got paid $7,670. In my mind I was risking $3,720 to win an additional $2,455 and needing to beat two opponents to do so.
If you would guess that if we were to run the tournament out 100 times and I could score 55 wins, 35 seconds and 10 thirds (a bit of a stretch that would require total domination) then I'd win $8,195 on average. If the ratio was 45/40/15 I'd average $7,699. If it dropped to 40/35/25 I'd be looking at $7,268. Clearly by taking the deal I wasn't giving up much equity even if I was WAY better than my opponents. If I was only slightly better than them I might have even been better off with the deal.
But the real issue comes down to locking up the money when things haven't been going well. If I played it out and didn't take the deal I'd be pissed with anything less than first. I'd feel like I threw away $1,300 if I finished in 2nd and I'd be spitting mad for the rest of the day if not the rest of the month with a 3rd place finish. If I was a very professional, logical player I know that I shouldn't factor that into the equation and should take any edge I can find, but in practice that's not how I operate.
Another thing to consider is bankroll. I don't have the bankroll to be playing something with as much fluctuation as 3 handed play with huge blinds for thousands of dollars even if I was certain I had a significant edge. Even though all the results are much better than I could have hoped for when the tournament started it still comes down to three handed play with a $6,000 difference between 1st and 3rd.
Now that I have all of that out of the way I can say that I was on the phone with Matt for the entire final table and he STRONGLY advised me to NOT make a deal. His logic, which was completely sound, is that there was no way in hell the other guys had as much experience playing 3 handed with large blinds as I do. I do feel like a little bit of a pussy, but when you factor in the emotional risk/reward to the monetary aspect, the deal makes even more sense.
Here's EB's reply to my reply:
I disagree with the possible outcomes you considered. I think 50%-55% first-place finishes would be a reasonable (but high-end of reasonable, obviously) expectation for you if you all three had the same stack. Another way I look at it is the same way I’d consider buying a used car: if the other guy loves the deal, it can’t be that great for me. Using that (admittedly simple) analysis, if you were the short stack, do you think you’d have been happier with this deal than you were as the big stack (or one of them)?
But that is all math (and somewhat questionable math at that). Obviously I understand, intellectually, that there is a difference (beyond the dollars) in the effect, on your state of mind, of coming off of a 3-way split that you took the lion’s share of and taking second or third place. However, I think it is hard to comprehend the magnitude of that effect, even for me, let alone for somebody who has never won or lost a month’s expenses in an hour.
Right now, I am sure you are playing your A-game, without much chance of being easily frustrated by short-term negative results, and you are probably once again enjoying playing (I’d imagine that after a week or two of getting your nuts slammed in the door it is almost like “Do I have to do this again?”.) I literally can’t even begin to calculate the dollar value of that change, so that being said, I definitely do understand your decision, and it DOES seem reasonable.
EB
I'll post my latest comments here. First of all I think this has been a helpful dialogue for me and I want to thank EB for getting it started. I have had my doubts about making this deal, the deal I made last week in the 1,870 player tournament, and many other deals in the past. Thinking through the details and possible outcomes a little more has given me more confidence that at the very least I didn't do something significantly wrong in this case.
I would estimate that more than half of the time I make it to heads up in the scenario in quention my opponents would bust one another rather than me busting one of them since they're likely to play looser than me. If that's true I'd have a greater than normal chance of finishing in second, but a lesser chance of winning outright. If that happened I'd be severely out chipped going into heads up play which would put me at much less than 50% to win.
I do think the notion of "If the deal is good for them, it must be bad for me" is a fair point. But I think a more fair description is, we're all agreeing to a deal that is neutral so none of us faces a negative outcome.
Interestingly enough, while my vast experience playing 3 handed is a strong asset in the situation in question, it's also what makes me want to make deals. I've been screwed so many times when I was sure I had first place locked up, that I know first hand how quickly things can go sour.
My next WCOOP event ($215 limit hold 'em) is tomorrow (Tuesday). For every WCOOP event they have a "second chance" tournament with the same game and structure that starts about 3 hours after the initial tournament goes off. Usually the second chance tournament is $215 regardless of the buy in of the initial event. In the past I've had great success playing this size tournament when it's limit hold 'em. I'd give it a 50% chance that I'll play the second chance event which I will count as WCOOP related as far as people who have a piece of my action are concerned. I'll let you know what happens.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Another FANTASTIC Day
For those of you who have a sliver of my WCOOP action I'm sorry to say that the good poker news I have is not WCOOP related. In fact I dropped another $161 playing satellites to Sunday's $530 event.
But I did have a major result in the Supernova Freeroll. For those of you who don't know Supernova refers to my level of VIP status on pokerstars. There are 6 levels: bronze, sliver, gold, platinum, supernova and supernova elite. The lower 4 levels are based on the amount that you play in a given month and the top two are based on how much you play in a calender year. Of the 9 million people who have pokerstars accounts there are less than 10 who are supernova elite and I am one of the 1,500 or so players who are regular supernova. There are a variety of perks associated with each level but the one that matters as far as this post goes is the supernova freeroll.
Every Saturday at 11 am Pokerstars puts up a $50,000 prize pool for players who are supernova to fight over. The tournament has no entry fee and usually draws 750-1,000 players. I've had great success in the past in this tournament and I think I've made the money over 30% of the times that I've played (it might even be closer to 40%).
I suspect that the main reason for my success is that while all of the players are VERY experienced poker players, most of them are not multitable no limit hold 'em tournament specialists. The reason I suspect this is it would be almost impossible to earn enough points to become a supernova playing multitable tournaments. Probably at least half of the players are cash game players and most of the rest are SNG players. While they've almost certainly all played some NL hold'em, playing big tournaments is a very different skill set.
Now on to the point! Today we started with 923 players and as per usual I figured I'd have a better than average chance to pick up at least the free $80 that comes with a finish of 162nd or higher. I managed to double my 1,500 starting stack to 3,000 in the first 15 minutes, but struggled for a long time after that.
I was having trouble in the other tournaments I was playing and kept going broke with pairs to over cards. So when I moved my short stack all in with 44 with about 250 players left and got called by AQ I was thinking I was due for a winner. But an ace came on the flop and I went from a 53% favorite to a 10-1 underdog. Another A on the turn felt like the universe was just rubbing it in, but a 4 on the river saved the day!
I was in OK shape after that and when we hit the money I was right about average with around 8,000 chips. Then I really made some headway. I picked up AA and someone moved all in in front of me. After adding a few stolen blinds to proceeds of that pot I my stack ballooned to over 25,000.
A short while later I faced a major decision. With blinds of 600/1200 I raised to 3,600 from the button with AK of clubs. The player in the big blind had over 30,000 chips and to my surprise reraised all in! If he had a pair (which I thought was very likely) I would be a small underdog. But if he had a hand like AQ or AJ I would be about a 3-1 favorite. I figured with AA or KK (the only hands I really feared) he would have made a smaller raise or just called so I probably wasn't in terrible shape. While I didn't like risking my entire stack (that was more than twice average) on one hand, if you're going to go deep sometimes you just have to go for it. I called, my opponent showed AQ and my hand held up.
I vaulted into 3rd place overall and was one good pot away from 1st. I stayed patient, watched a little golf and let my opponents bust each other. If I got a good hand, I played and won. I managed to avoid any tough decisions and by the time we were down to about 35 players I had 80,000 chips while the average stack was close to 40,000.
Then I went card dead. I kept getting total garbage and at an aggressive table there wasn't much room to maneuver. I slowly saw my strong stack melt away. But, my opponents were still dropping and I was moving up the pay levels. 19th-27th paid $200, 14th to 18th paid $335 and 10 to 13th paid $445. We were stalled at 17 players for what felt like an eternity and almost everyone in the whole tournament had relatively equal chip stacks. Then 4 people went broke in a matter of 10 hands. Then 3 more went down in the following 20 hands. In what felt like a very short time we were playing at two tables of 5.
I was in dead last when we started playing 10 handed. I'd managed to keep my head above water picking up the blinds here and there, but I was constantly in danger of going broke. At my worst with blinds of 3000/6000 and a 300 chip ante I was down to 35,000 chips while the average had shot up to 138,000.
I moved all in with 87 of spades and stole the blinds and then I got a walk in the big blind so I was left with just under 50,000 on the button when the blinds went up to 4000/8000. The player to my right raised to 24,000 and I found myself with 88. "Hmmmmmmm" I thought. My first thought was "I have to call here. I'd be crazy to fold 88 at a 5-way table."
This was a key hand and for once I took my time making a decision. I was 100% sure I'd get called if I moved all in and I decided I might be able to find a spot where I was in better shape or someone else might go broke if I waited a few more hands. Folding was kind of a weak play and I think it was probably a mistake, but that's what I did.
Luckily I caught a break a few hands later. The next time I was on the button with my stack almost exactly the same size, the same player raised to 24,000 and I moved all in with A8. I'd been thinking about the hand where I had 88 and had come to the conclusion that I made a mistake. Even though my hand was weaker this time I decided to go for it. My opponent called with K2 and after nothing of significance showed up I took the pot.
I was in better shape, but no one else was really hurting. We’d been playing 10 handed for over 40 hands when I caught a big break on a key hand. I picked up A9 and was second to act with about 60,000 in chips and blinds still at 4000/8000. I moved all in and got called by a player who had about 90,000 chips. I knew I was in trouble and when he turned over AT (a 3-1 favorite over my hand) I saw a 10th place finish in my future.
I was up to over 130,000 and my opponent was left with around 30,000. On the next hand my crippled foe folded, but on the hand after that he moved all in. Everyone folded to me in the big blind. The blinds had gone up to 6000/12000 and I was forced to call with T7 of hearts since I was only risking about 18,000 to win a little over 50,000. My opponent had Q8, I managed to make a flush, we were down to 9, and I had almost 170,000 chips!
I was making nice headway at the final table. The blinds had gone up to 10,000/20,000 and I kept getting hands like KQ and AJ that were perfect for raising. Around this point I had 240,000 and the player to my right moved all in for 120,000. I had AJ in my hand which I easily could have called with. But I decided I might be able to find a better spot and I didn't want to risk half of my stack. I folded and a player behind me who had me covered called with AA and won the pot. If I'd played the hand I would have reraised the initial raiser and slammed head first into those pocked aces. I would have been forced to call a raise and would have gone broke. It turned out that the initial raiser had 98 of clubs and got paid $1,950 for 6th place.
A few hands later I had my stack up to 300,000 and I picked up AA in the big blind. As soon as I saw my cards my heart rate went up as I hoped someone would give me action. Aces are so powerful because NO MATTER WHAT you're opponent has you'll win 80% of the time against one player. To my delight the first player to act who had about 200,000 chips moved all in!
I instantly called and saw that he had 88. The flop came down 976 which was about the worst flop that didn’t have an 8 on it that I could imagine. But there were two spades and I had the ace of spades. Wanting a spade to kill some of my opponents outs I called out loud for the king of spades. BANG! The king of spades came on the turn! The river was a blank and my opponent took home $$2,450 for 5th place.
3rd place paid $3950, 2nd place was $6,300 and 1st was $10,150 so there was a big pile of cash to split up. I e-mailed support and 60 seconds later there was a Pokerstars representative there to help us with the deal. We decided to split the remaining money based on chip count and once again since I had the most chips I got the most money. When the math was done my end was $7,670!!!!
I could have fought it out and gone for the $10,000+ 1st prize, but I also could have ended up with less than $4,000 for finishing in 3rd. I figured locking up an extra $3,700 was the way to go.
This is my biggest win since early 2006 and the 6th biggest win of my career. Not bad for a tournament that cost me zero dollars to enter! The timing couldn’t be better and I couldn’t be happier about my win.
But I did have a major result in the Supernova Freeroll. For those of you who don't know Supernova refers to my level of VIP status on pokerstars. There are 6 levels: bronze, sliver, gold, platinum, supernova and supernova elite. The lower 4 levels are based on the amount that you play in a given month and the top two are based on how much you play in a calender year. Of the 9 million people who have pokerstars accounts there are less than 10 who are supernova elite and I am one of the 1,500 or so players who are regular supernova. There are a variety of perks associated with each level but the one that matters as far as this post goes is the supernova freeroll.
Every Saturday at 11 am Pokerstars puts up a $50,000 prize pool for players who are supernova to fight over. The tournament has no entry fee and usually draws 750-1,000 players. I've had great success in the past in this tournament and I think I've made the money over 30% of the times that I've played (it might even be closer to 40%).
I suspect that the main reason for my success is that while all of the players are VERY experienced poker players, most of them are not multitable no limit hold 'em tournament specialists. The reason I suspect this is it would be almost impossible to earn enough points to become a supernova playing multitable tournaments. Probably at least half of the players are cash game players and most of the rest are SNG players. While they've almost certainly all played some NL hold'em, playing big tournaments is a very different skill set.
Now on to the point! Today we started with 923 players and as per usual I figured I'd have a better than average chance to pick up at least the free $80 that comes with a finish of 162nd or higher. I managed to double my 1,500 starting stack to 3,000 in the first 15 minutes, but struggled for a long time after that.
I was having trouble in the other tournaments I was playing and kept going broke with pairs to over cards. So when I moved my short stack all in with 44 with about 250 players left and got called by AQ I was thinking I was due for a winner. But an ace came on the flop and I went from a 53% favorite to a 10-1 underdog. Another A on the turn felt like the universe was just rubbing it in, but a 4 on the river saved the day!
I was in OK shape after that and when we hit the money I was right about average with around 8,000 chips. Then I really made some headway. I picked up AA and someone moved all in in front of me. After adding a few stolen blinds to proceeds of that pot I my stack ballooned to over 25,000.
A short while later I faced a major decision. With blinds of 600/1200 I raised to 3,600 from the button with AK of clubs. The player in the big blind had over 30,000 chips and to my surprise reraised all in! If he had a pair (which I thought was very likely) I would be a small underdog. But if he had a hand like AQ or AJ I would be about a 3-1 favorite. I figured with AA or KK (the only hands I really feared) he would have made a smaller raise or just called so I probably wasn't in terrible shape. While I didn't like risking my entire stack (that was more than twice average) on one hand, if you're going to go deep sometimes you just have to go for it. I called, my opponent showed AQ and my hand held up.
I vaulted into 3rd place overall and was one good pot away from 1st. I stayed patient, watched a little golf and let my opponents bust each other. If I got a good hand, I played and won. I managed to avoid any tough decisions and by the time we were down to about 35 players I had 80,000 chips while the average stack was close to 40,000.
Then I went card dead. I kept getting total garbage and at an aggressive table there wasn't much room to maneuver. I slowly saw my strong stack melt away. But, my opponents were still dropping and I was moving up the pay levels. 19th-27th paid $200, 14th to 18th paid $335 and 10 to 13th paid $445. We were stalled at 17 players for what felt like an eternity and almost everyone in the whole tournament had relatively equal chip stacks. Then 4 people went broke in a matter of 10 hands. Then 3 more went down in the following 20 hands. In what felt like a very short time we were playing at two tables of 5.
I was in dead last when we started playing 10 handed. I'd managed to keep my head above water picking up the blinds here and there, but I was constantly in danger of going broke. At my worst with blinds of 3000/6000 and a 300 chip ante I was down to 35,000 chips while the average had shot up to 138,000.
I moved all in with 87 of spades and stole the blinds and then I got a walk in the big blind so I was left with just under 50,000 on the button when the blinds went up to 4000/8000. The player to my right raised to 24,000 and I found myself with 88. "Hmmmmmmm" I thought. My first thought was "I have to call here. I'd be crazy to fold 88 at a 5-way table."
This was a key hand and for once I took my time making a decision. I was 100% sure I'd get called if I moved all in and I decided I might be able to find a spot where I was in better shape or someone else might go broke if I waited a few more hands. Folding was kind of a weak play and I think it was probably a mistake, but that's what I did.
Luckily I caught a break a few hands later. The next time I was on the button with my stack almost exactly the same size, the same player raised to 24,000 and I moved all in with A8. I'd been thinking about the hand where I had 88 and had come to the conclusion that I made a mistake. Even though my hand was weaker this time I decided to go for it. My opponent called with K2 and after nothing of significance showed up I took the pot.
I was in better shape, but no one else was really hurting. We’d been playing 10 handed for over 40 hands when I caught a big break on a key hand. I picked up A9 and was second to act with about 60,000 in chips and blinds still at 4000/8000. I moved all in and got called by a player who had about 90,000 chips. I knew I was in trouble and when he turned over AT (a 3-1 favorite over my hand) I saw a 10th place finish in my future.
I was up to over 130,000 and my opponent was left with around 30,000. On the next hand my crippled foe folded, but on the hand after that he moved all in. Everyone folded to me in the big blind. The blinds had gone up to 6000/12000 and I was forced to call with T7 of hearts since I was only risking about 18,000 to win a little over 50,000. My opponent had Q8, I managed to make a flush, we were down to 9, and I had almost 170,000 chips!
I was making nice headway at the final table. The blinds had gone up to 10,000/20,000 and I kept getting hands like KQ and AJ that were perfect for raising. Around this point I had 240,000 and the player to my right moved all in for 120,000. I had AJ in my hand which I easily could have called with. But I decided I might be able to find a better spot and I didn't want to risk half of my stack. I folded and a player behind me who had me covered called with AA and won the pot. If I'd played the hand I would have reraised the initial raiser and slammed head first into those pocked aces. I would have been forced to call a raise and would have gone broke. It turned out that the initial raiser had 98 of clubs and got paid $1,950 for 6th place.
A few hands later I had my stack up to 300,000 and I picked up AA in the big blind. As soon as I saw my cards my heart rate went up as I hoped someone would give me action. Aces are so powerful because NO MATTER WHAT you're opponent has you'll win 80% of the time against one player. To my delight the first player to act who had about 200,000 chips moved all in!
I instantly called and saw that he had 88. The flop came down 976 which was about the worst flop that didn’t have an 8 on it that I could imagine. But there were two spades and I had the ace of spades. Wanting a spade to kill some of my opponents outs I called out loud for the king of spades. BANG! The king of spades came on the turn! The river was a blank and my opponent took home $$2,450 for 5th place.
3rd place paid $3950, 2nd place was $6,300 and 1st was $10,150 so there was a big pile of cash to split up. I e-mailed support and 60 seconds later there was a Pokerstars representative there to help us with the deal. We decided to split the remaining money based on chip count and once again since I had the most chips I got the most money. When the math was done my end was $7,670!!!!
I could have fought it out and gone for the $10,000+ 1st prize, but I also could have ended up with less than $4,000 for finishing in 3rd. I figured locking up an extra $3,700 was the way to go.
This is my biggest win since early 2006 and the 6th biggest win of my career. Not bad for a tournament that cost me zero dollars to enter! The timing couldn’t be better and I couldn’t be happier about my win.
Friday, September 14, 2007
An Early Exit
I ran my starting stack of 3,000 up to 4,500 early by winning a series of small pots, but after losing chips about 500 at a time with 99, AK and AQ I found myself back under 3,000. I slowly dribbled off more chips and found myself with just over 2,000 chips about and hour and 20 minutes into the tournament.
Then I picked up TT on the button and the first player to act raised the 50 chip big blind to 175. Two other players called which was uncharacteristic for our table. It was up to me next. I was most worried about the initial raiser since he could have a big hand. Since the other two players just called it was unlikely that they had a pair above TT. On the previous hand the initial raiser won a pot going all in on the flop with 66 one pair against another player who missed a draw so I knew he could have a small pair which would be the best case scenario for me.
I thought about just calling, but up against 3 opponents unless I hit a T on the flop I was probably done. There was 600 in the pot and I figured if I moved all in I would almost certainly win right there and increase my stack by 30%. Also I thought there was some chance I might get called by an underpair which would be perfect.
So I moved all in and instantly got called by the initial raiser. Yikes! When the cards got turned over and I saw that he had AK I was pretty happy. I thought with the speed that he called I was probably up against a big pair. I was about 55% to win the pot before the flop, but an A came on the flop and with no help on the turn or the river I was out in about 3,490th place.
My Next WCOOP event will be $215 Limit Hold'em on Tuesday at noon.
Then I picked up TT on the button and the first player to act raised the 50 chip big blind to 175. Two other players called which was uncharacteristic for our table. It was up to me next. I was most worried about the initial raiser since he could have a big hand. Since the other two players just called it was unlikely that they had a pair above TT. On the previous hand the initial raiser won a pot going all in on the flop with 66 one pair against another player who missed a draw so I knew he could have a small pair which would be the best case scenario for me.
I thought about just calling, but up against 3 opponents unless I hit a T on the flop I was probably done. There was 600 in the pot and I figured if I moved all in I would almost certainly win right there and increase my stack by 30%. Also I thought there was some chance I might get called by an underpair which would be perfect.
So I moved all in and instantly got called by the initial raiser. Yikes! When the cards got turned over and I saw that he had AK I was pretty happy. I thought with the speed that he called I was probably up against a big pair. I was about 55% to win the pot before the flop, but an A came on the flop and with no help on the turn or the river I was out in about 3,490th place.
My Next WCOOP event will be $215 Limit Hold'em on Tuesday at noon.
And We're Off!
Event #1 Started with 4,610 players and a total prize pool of $922,000. Just to give you an idea of some of the payouts. 1st place pays $172,875, 5th is $18,901, 12th is $6,454, 138th is $1,198 and 534th (the edge of the money) pays $369. I'll let you know what happened when it's over.
A Massive Flaw in the Plan and a few WCOOP Satellites
My quest for TLB supremecy has been totally derailed. Jake discovered while reading up on the TLB rules that only my top 10 results for a given week count towards the weekly TLB. ACK! I can't say that I'm really surprised or disappointed. This is certainly a case of if it sounds too good to be true then it probably is.
Of course I never would have played the $11, 1870 player tournament that I won without this little scheme so in the end it turned out to be wildly profitable!
This morning I played 6 WCOOP satellites. 3 of them were $8 with rebuys to win $215 seats, one was a $39 satellite to a $215 seat and two more were $16 double shootouts to win $530 seats. For those of you who don't know a shootout is when you start a tournament with many tables and each table plays until one player at that table has all the chips. Then the winners of each table come together and play at a new table. So for example, today in my $16 double shootout we started with 36 players split into 6 tables of 6. The 6 winners of the initial 6 tables then come together and play and the winner of that table gets the $530 entry. Of course the odds of you winning both your first table and the final table are slim (1 in 36 for the average player), but you get a shot at $530 for a $16 investment.
This style of tournament really suits my game since I've played so many SNG's, but for some reason I don't really seem to enjoy it despite some past success. In fact the first time I played a shootout the only reason I did so was because my friend Matt offered me a deal I couldn't refuse.
He offered to put up all the money and give me 25% of the profits in an 81 player $109 double shootout. Unlike in the satellite version I described above this was not a winner take all payout structure and the top 9 spots paid much like they would in a normal multitable tournament.
Since I was only getting a quarter of the profits of course I won the damn thing which made me about $600 and Matt about $1,800. To his credit Matt did take Jen and I out the next day and shelled out a big chunk of that $1,800 to buy us each a set of golf clubs as a wedding present. What a guy.
So what happened in my 6 satellites? Well when I started writing this post it looked like I was going to get shut out. But in my last of the $8 with rebuys I managed to pull out a victory. This means I'm ahead $72.60 so far in the WCOOP! Yep looks like it's time to retire.
More results coming later today.
Of course I never would have played the $11, 1870 player tournament that I won without this little scheme so in the end it turned out to be wildly profitable!
This morning I played 6 WCOOP satellites. 3 of them were $8 with rebuys to win $215 seats, one was a $39 satellite to a $215 seat and two more were $16 double shootouts to win $530 seats. For those of you who don't know a shootout is when you start a tournament with many tables and each table plays until one player at that table has all the chips. Then the winners of each table come together and play at a new table. So for example, today in my $16 double shootout we started with 36 players split into 6 tables of 6. The 6 winners of the initial 6 tables then come together and play and the winner of that table gets the $530 entry. Of course the odds of you winning both your first table and the final table are slim (1 in 36 for the average player), but you get a shot at $530 for a $16 investment.
This style of tournament really suits my game since I've played so many SNG's, but for some reason I don't really seem to enjoy it despite some past success. In fact the first time I played a shootout the only reason I did so was because my friend Matt offered me a deal I couldn't refuse.
He offered to put up all the money and give me 25% of the profits in an 81 player $109 double shootout. Unlike in the satellite version I described above this was not a winner take all payout structure and the top 9 spots paid much like they would in a normal multitable tournament.
Since I was only getting a quarter of the profits of course I won the damn thing which made me about $600 and Matt about $1,800. To his credit Matt did take Jen and I out the next day and shelled out a big chunk of that $1,800 to buy us each a set of golf clubs as a wedding present. What a guy.
So what happened in my 6 satellites? Well when I started writing this post it looked like I was going to get shut out. But in my last of the $8 with rebuys I managed to pull out a victory. This means I'm ahead $72.60 so far in the WCOOP! Yep looks like it's time to retire.
More results coming later today.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Hitting the Tournament Leaderboard and a Big Win
Yesterday I started my mini quest to win the Pokerstars weekly tournament leader board (TLB) by playing as many $12, 180 entrant tournaments as possible. I ran into a little difficulty early both in terms of luck and logistics. It turns out that around 9 am the tournaments in question only go off about every 15 minutes so it's impossible to play the volume that I'd hoped. But I made up some of the slack by playing in a few other tournaments which turned out to be a VERY good idea.
I ended up playing 21 of the 180 player tournaments and had 4 money finishes and 1 final table, but the most significant result by far came in an $11 tournament that started with 1,870 players. I played in this tournament because it had 10 minute limits so while it would be slower than the turbo 180 player flavor, it would be much faster than a normal tournament with 15 minute limits. Also in going for TLB points it makes sense to play against the weaker competition at the low levels.
I had a fair run of luck to start and when we got down to about 60 people (remember we started with almost 1,900 so 60 left is pretty far into it) my chip stack was about 2/3 of average. I caught a few breaks, made some good plays and before I knew it we were down to two tables. I caught some more breaks, busted a few people and found that with 14 players left I was in 2nd place overall and the chip leader at my table with about 300,000 chips (we started the tournament with 1,500 so this was a real accomplishment).
This is when I really went to work. No one else at my table had more than 200,000 and they were all doing whatever they could to just survive to the final table. I raised about half of the hands, gradually accumulated chips and ground down my opponents. I knew I couldn't go broke on any one hand and I had to do whatever I could to make it to the top few spots. 18-10th places only paid $140 and 9th was a paltry $250 while 4th was over $1,000, 3rd was $1,550, 2nd was $2,500 and 1st was $4,100. Clearly it's worth taking some chances for a shot a the top spots.
When we got down to 9 players I was in 3rd place and I did my best to keep the pressure on my opponents who were all trying to hang on since every time a player was eliminated they'd be guarenteed an extra few hundred dollars.
My chips stack went up and down a little more than I'd like, but when we made it to 6 handed I caught a MAJOR break. I was in the small blind with about 500,000 chips, the short stack was on the button with about 120,000 chips and the big stack was in the big blind with 700,000 chips. The blinds were something like 15,000/30,000 and the short stack moved all in from the button. I had JJ and moved all in over the top. The big stack instantly called and I figured I was screwed. Sure enough he had AA. SHIT!
The other player had 33 and I thinking about the fact that at least I'd finish in fifth (which paid about $900) if we both went broke. Then...BOOM! J on the flop! I was up to 1.2 million in chips and in total control. The player who I'd just crippled went broke on the next hand and we were down to 3 players.
We played 3 handed for what felt like forever. Myself and one of the other players wanted to make a deal and split up the remaining prize money based on chip count (if you e-mail support they'll come to the table and make any deal official and handle the money), but the third player wasn't interested.
In fact the third player was totally nuts. On one hand he just called in the small blind (the blinds were 25,000/50,000) and I moved all in for 550,000 in the big blind with A8. He instantly called with J7! Luckily I won that hand, but I wanted to lock up as much money as I could rather than play 3 handed for some serious bucks against a totally unpredictable opponent.
He was so unpredictable that I just decided to be crazy aggressive when I got a good hand and hoped he made a mistake. At one point I had about 1,000,000, the nut job had about 1,100,000 and the other guy had about 600,000. The blinds were still 25,000/50,000 and I was first to act. I picked up 77 and moved all in. Normally this would be a major over bet (in this case it was certainly a minor over bet), but I thought he might call with a weak ace or an under pair (he'd risked all of his chips earlier with KT so it wasn't too much of a stretch).
It turned out that he did have a pair and sadly it was 88. He called, I swore and I knew I was pretty much done. The flop came with 3 spades and I had the 7 of spades (while my opponent had no spades) which brought a glimmer of hope. And then the turn came a 4th spade! AH HA! Take that you bastard! The river was a 7 (which I didn't need) and I took down the pot. I busted him a few hands later.
Now it was time to talk deal. We e-mailed support and a person showed up at the table in less than a minute. I'm pretty sure as a supernova my e-mails are flagged and I get priority service because that is just amazing.
After a little back and forth we agreed to a split roughly based on chip count and since I had most of the chips I got most of the money. My end was $3,620!!!!! That's some serious dough for an $11 investment!
We had to play it out for TLB points and I won that part too. I picked up about 900 points for that one tournament and at the end of the day found myself in 7th place on the weekly TLB about 700 points out of 1st! Today I'm continuing to generate more points and I like my chances of winning the TLB. I have until the end of Saturday and I'll keep you posted on my progress.
Also WCOOP starts tomorrow at noon pacific with $215 NL Hold 'em 6-handed. I'll certainly let you know what happens as far as that goes.
I ended up playing 21 of the 180 player tournaments and had 4 money finishes and 1 final table, but the most significant result by far came in an $11 tournament that started with 1,870 players. I played in this tournament because it had 10 minute limits so while it would be slower than the turbo 180 player flavor, it would be much faster than a normal tournament with 15 minute limits. Also in going for TLB points it makes sense to play against the weaker competition at the low levels.
I had a fair run of luck to start and when we got down to about 60 people (remember we started with almost 1,900 so 60 left is pretty far into it) my chip stack was about 2/3 of average. I caught a few breaks, made some good plays and before I knew it we were down to two tables. I caught some more breaks, busted a few people and found that with 14 players left I was in 2nd place overall and the chip leader at my table with about 300,000 chips (we started the tournament with 1,500 so this was a real accomplishment).
This is when I really went to work. No one else at my table had more than 200,000 and they were all doing whatever they could to just survive to the final table. I raised about half of the hands, gradually accumulated chips and ground down my opponents. I knew I couldn't go broke on any one hand and I had to do whatever I could to make it to the top few spots. 18-10th places only paid $140 and 9th was a paltry $250 while 4th was over $1,000, 3rd was $1,550, 2nd was $2,500 and 1st was $4,100. Clearly it's worth taking some chances for a shot a the top spots.
When we got down to 9 players I was in 3rd place and I did my best to keep the pressure on my opponents who were all trying to hang on since every time a player was eliminated they'd be guarenteed an extra few hundred dollars.
My chips stack went up and down a little more than I'd like, but when we made it to 6 handed I caught a MAJOR break. I was in the small blind with about 500,000 chips, the short stack was on the button with about 120,000 chips and the big stack was in the big blind with 700,000 chips. The blinds were something like 15,000/30,000 and the short stack moved all in from the button. I had JJ and moved all in over the top. The big stack instantly called and I figured I was screwed. Sure enough he had AA. SHIT!
The other player had 33 and I thinking about the fact that at least I'd finish in fifth (which paid about $900) if we both went broke. Then...BOOM! J on the flop! I was up to 1.2 million in chips and in total control. The player who I'd just crippled went broke on the next hand and we were down to 3 players.
We played 3 handed for what felt like forever. Myself and one of the other players wanted to make a deal and split up the remaining prize money based on chip count (if you e-mail support they'll come to the table and make any deal official and handle the money), but the third player wasn't interested.
In fact the third player was totally nuts. On one hand he just called in the small blind (the blinds were 25,000/50,000) and I moved all in for 550,000 in the big blind with A8. He instantly called with J7! Luckily I won that hand, but I wanted to lock up as much money as I could rather than play 3 handed for some serious bucks against a totally unpredictable opponent.
He was so unpredictable that I just decided to be crazy aggressive when I got a good hand and hoped he made a mistake. At one point I had about 1,000,000, the nut job had about 1,100,000 and the other guy had about 600,000. The blinds were still 25,000/50,000 and I was first to act. I picked up 77 and moved all in. Normally this would be a major over bet (in this case it was certainly a minor over bet), but I thought he might call with a weak ace or an under pair (he'd risked all of his chips earlier with KT so it wasn't too much of a stretch).
It turned out that he did have a pair and sadly it was 88. He called, I swore and I knew I was pretty much done. The flop came with 3 spades and I had the 7 of spades (while my opponent had no spades) which brought a glimmer of hope. And then the turn came a 4th spade! AH HA! Take that you bastard! The river was a 7 (which I didn't need) and I took down the pot. I busted him a few hands later.
Now it was time to talk deal. We e-mailed support and a person showed up at the table in less than a minute. I'm pretty sure as a supernova my e-mails are flagged and I get priority service because that is just amazing.
After a little back and forth we agreed to a split roughly based on chip count and since I had most of the chips I got most of the money. My end was $3,620!!!!! That's some serious dough for an $11 investment!
We had to play it out for TLB points and I won that part too. I picked up about 900 points for that one tournament and at the end of the day found myself in 7th place on the weekly TLB about 700 points out of 1st! Today I'm continuing to generate more points and I like my chances of winning the TLB. I have until the end of Saturday and I'll keep you posted on my progress.
Also WCOOP starts tomorrow at noon pacific with $215 NL Hold 'em 6-handed. I'll certainly let you know what happens as far as that goes.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Hijacking the Pokerstars Tournament Leader Board
Bear with me through a little background here, because the point of this post is VERY interesting (I think). Pokerstars has a weekly, monthly, and yearly tournament leader board (TLB) where the names of the players who have consistently done well in multitable tournaments are proudly displayed. While the monthly and yearly contests inexplicably have no prizes, the weekly winner gets a chance to play one of the "Team Pokerstars" celebrities (usually one of the 4 former world champions that endorse Pokerstars) heads up for a minimum of $1,000. If the celebrity wins the money carries over to the next week where another $1,000 is added. This continues until the TLB player wins and takes the cash.
So how do results in tournaments turn into the points with which the players are ranked on the TLB? It's really quite simple. Actually it's not. They use this ridiculous formula which spits out a point value for any result in the top 15% of finishers (I'll explain more below so don't bother trying to figure out what's going on with the formula).
You might think that since the best players play for the most money, buy in should be weighted most heavily. After all if you really want to know who the best players are, the best way to figure that out is to look at who has the best results at the highest levels. But it turns out that the effect of all those square roots and and logs is to make buy in much less significant than you might think. If it was linear you'd get 10 times as many points for winning a 100 player $200 buy in tournament than you would winning a 100 player $20 tournament. In fact you get 330 points for the former and 230 points for the latter. Clearly buy in is barely a factor at all.
The number of entrants makes a big impact, but it's also similarly deflated by the math. You get 230 for that 100 player $20 tournament, but you'd only get 729 for a $20 tournament with 1,000 players.
The place you finish is the last factor variable that determines how many points you get and while there's a drop off from 1st on down it's also not as big as you might guess. In our same $20 100 player tournament you'd get 230 for 1st, 163 for 2nd, 73 for 10th and 59 for 15th (out of the top 15% is zero).
If you put it all together you can see that the most important thing is to have a shit load of finishes in the top 15%.
So what does all this mean and what's the point? Well the point is if I play a slew of those $12 180 player turbo tournaments that I kicked ass in last Sunday I should be able to win the tournament leader board almost every week!
Pokerstars offers a little calculator that you can use to determine how many points you'd get for a given result in a given tournament and I looked at how many points every place in the top 15% (or the top 27 spots) generates. If I were to play 180 tournaments in a week and finish in places 1-27 exactly one time each I'd accumulate 2484 points. I'm certain I could do this much.
The tournaments take about an hour and 45 minutes to play to conclusion, but of course that's only if you take them all the way to the end. Conservatively, I would say on average each one might take me 45 minutes. So playing 6 at a time I could play 72 in an 8 hour day. But there's a little delay getting into 6 tournaments and a little down time at the end while you're waiting for your final tournaments to end and while they seem to be starting every 10 minutes there aren't as many as I want just waiting to be played so we'll call it 60 a day.
So if I play 60 a day, 6 days a week we've got 360 tournaments. If I was dead on average in terms of skill level (which we sure as hell know I'm not) and I had an average run of luck I'd generate 4968 points. The winner of the weekly TLB last week only had 3,293 points! In fact the person who had the most points in the entire month of August only had 6,980 points.
I suspect that since I'll usually be the absolute best and certainly always in the top 5 of the 180 players playing I can do quite a bit better than the average number of points I used for my calculations above.
So what now? Well this week the TLB leader from last week is playing the heads up match for $3,000. If he loses it means that next week, this weeks TLB winner will be playing for $4,000. Right now the weeks leader has 2,600 points, but what happens every week is the top players in the Sunday Million ($215 buy in, 7,000 players is a lot of points) jump to the top of the leader board and don't go much further. I've got about 1,000 points just from screwing around on Sunday and I've got 4 days left in the week, so I might go for it this week.
If everything I've calculated is correct I should be able to win almost every week until they stop running the $12 180 player tournaments or change the system. If either is the case I'll no doubt gain some degree of fame from the whole thing. At the very least I'm going to go balls to the wall tomorrow and see how many I can play and what my results are. I won another $500 today so I'm feeling pretty good about my play.
So how do results in tournaments turn into the points with which the players are ranked on the TLB? It's really quite simple. Actually it's not. They use this ridiculous formula which spits out a point value for any result in the top 15% of finishers (I'll explain more below so don't bother trying to figure out what's going on with the formula).
Points = 10 * [sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)] * [1+log(b+0.25)]
Where:
n is the number of entrants
k is the place of finish (k=1 for the first-place finisher, and so on)
b is the buy-in amount in dollars (excluding administrative fee). For freerolls the buy-in is $0, and for FPP tournaments 1 FPP is counted as $0.05.
You might think that since the best players play for the most money, buy in should be weighted most heavily. After all if you really want to know who the best players are, the best way to figure that out is to look at who has the best results at the highest levels. But it turns out that the effect of all those square roots and and logs is to make buy in much less significant than you might think. If it was linear you'd get 10 times as many points for winning a 100 player $200 buy in tournament than you would winning a 100 player $20 tournament. In fact you get 330 points for the former and 230 points for the latter. Clearly buy in is barely a factor at all.
The number of entrants makes a big impact, but it's also similarly deflated by the math. You get 230 for that 100 player $20 tournament, but you'd only get 729 for a $20 tournament with 1,000 players.
The place you finish is the last factor variable that determines how many points you get and while there's a drop off from 1st on down it's also not as big as you might guess. In our same $20 100 player tournament you'd get 230 for 1st, 163 for 2nd, 73 for 10th and 59 for 15th (out of the top 15% is zero).
If you put it all together you can see that the most important thing is to have a shit load of finishes in the top 15%.
So what does all this mean and what's the point? Well the point is if I play a slew of those $12 180 player turbo tournaments that I kicked ass in last Sunday I should be able to win the tournament leader board almost every week!
Pokerstars offers a little calculator that you can use to determine how many points you'd get for a given result in a given tournament and I looked at how many points every place in the top 15% (or the top 27 spots) generates. If I were to play 180 tournaments in a week and finish in places 1-27 exactly one time each I'd accumulate 2484 points. I'm certain I could do this much.
The tournaments take about an hour and 45 minutes to play to conclusion, but of course that's only if you take them all the way to the end. Conservatively, I would say on average each one might take me 45 minutes. So playing 6 at a time I could play 72 in an 8 hour day. But there's a little delay getting into 6 tournaments and a little down time at the end while you're waiting for your final tournaments to end and while they seem to be starting every 10 minutes there aren't as many as I want just waiting to be played so we'll call it 60 a day.
So if I play 60 a day, 6 days a week we've got 360 tournaments. If I was dead on average in terms of skill level (which we sure as hell know I'm not) and I had an average run of luck I'd generate 4968 points. The winner of the weekly TLB last week only had 3,293 points! In fact the person who had the most points in the entire month of August only had 6,980 points.
I suspect that since I'll usually be the absolute best and certainly always in the top 5 of the 180 players playing I can do quite a bit better than the average number of points I used for my calculations above.
So what now? Well this week the TLB leader from last week is playing the heads up match for $3,000. If he loses it means that next week, this weeks TLB winner will be playing for $4,000. Right now the weeks leader has 2,600 points, but what happens every week is the top players in the Sunday Million ($215 buy in, 7,000 players is a lot of points) jump to the top of the leader board and don't go much further. I've got about 1,000 points just from screwing around on Sunday and I've got 4 days left in the week, so I might go for it this week.
If everything I've calculated is correct I should be able to win almost every week until they stop running the $12 180 player tournaments or change the system. If either is the case I'll no doubt gain some degree of fame from the whole thing. At the very least I'm going to go balls to the wall tomorrow and see how many I can play and what my results are. I won another $500 today so I'm feeling pretty good about my play.
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