More Comment Talk

After my post regarding the hand where the hero had T9s on a board of JJ9J I got the following comment.

Good point about the stack sizes preflop.

I'm mostly a sng player, and there it is very common for the big stack to float the flop the take the pot away on the turn if the raiser missed the flop since the stacks aren't deep enough to fire 2 bullets without committing to the hand. Perhaps I overestimated the chances of it happening here.

Also, since this was a small buy-in tournament I probably don't give the players enough credit.

You never mention the possibility of him having a smaller pocket pair. I thought this was a likely holding for him. He would just call before the flop hoping to hit a set, and call a c-bet hoping I missed with big cards. You also don't mention the possibility of him having a 9. When he calls the flop bet am I really beat almost every time here? I considered the fact that he was slowplaying but thought my hand was often good. I was more worried about him having a 9 with a higher kicker but when the Jack came on the turn we would chop.

If I check the turn and he bets, I think he's going to have a smaller pocket pair or a 9 a large % of the time so I don't see how I can fold. I agree that I should have had a lot more chips at the start of the hand then I could have still been alive by the time I realized I was beat.

Interesting that you didn't mention his actual hand. He had QQ.

Thanks for the feedback.

First of all the reason I didn't mention QQ is it's very rare for anyone to smooth call a raise with QQ because it's virtually always a terrible play, but a play bad players almost never make. So you have to have a someone who is at least a fair player making a bad play. It seemed likely that you were up against a big hand and whether it was QQ or AA was irrelevant given your hand and the board.

The reason why I didn't think an underpair was very likely (so unlikely that I guess I didn't mention it) is the stack sizes and the stage of the tournament. Most people give up on cold calling a standard raise trying to flop a set once the blinds go above 25/50. In this case I would expect pairs 88 and lower to either go all in (assuming there were no other massive stacks waiting in the blinds) or fold.

Similarly in order for him to have a 9 he'd have to call your raise preflop with a hand that contained a 9. Maybe A9 is a slim possibility, but only the very worst players would cold call 600 here with K9 or 89 or whatever. Given that you have a 9 and there is one on the board, it seems very remote that your opponent would have one too. Even if it was more likely your opponent had a 9, risking your whole remaining stack hoping to get half the pot is clearly not a great idea.

Of course there is always a chance that your opponent could be doing something that makes no sense (I've mentioned a few hands recently that proved that point). But I think the key to this hand is when you make it to the turn do you think it's more likely that you opponent has a hand like AK or AQ or an over pair. Both are somewhat likely. If you think it's 50/50 or even 40/60 given the money in the pot and the 5% chance that you could be up against a wacko then it's go time. If you think there's a 75% chance its an overpair, it's time for you cards to hit the muck.

I always find it interesting to think about these hands in great detail. That way when I come across a similar situation in the future I've already worked out what I think is the right play and can feel confident making it. Thanks for the comments!

Mercielss Beatdowns!

I had a great day today. I stomped some poor bastards!

I started off playing a mix of $10/$20 and $15/$30 6 handed limit games 4 or 5 at a time. After about 1,000 hands I was losing about $2,000. Clearly this was a pretty bad start to my day. I'd lost about $1,500 of it at one table. This fellow named yojimbo (who I know from past experience is a bad player) was killing me. I was getting good cards and making good hands but it was as if he was getting to choose the best possible turn or river card over and over. Yojimbo isn't the worst player, but he plays way too many hands before the flop and overplays them with too many bets and raises post flop. If you can make a few hands you'll win a ton, but if you keep missing it's not going to be cheap.

Then I saw that he was uncharacteristically at two $30/$60 games in addition to the one $15/$30. I decided to drop all of my other games which weren't exactly stellar and get into both of these $30/$60. I quickly got a seat in both games.

After 100 hands or so things were going well. I was winning about $700 in one game and only losing $120 in the other. Then the folloing two hands came up at exactly the same time!

In game #1 I got dealt JJ, yojimbo open raised to $60, I three bet making it $90 to go and he just called.

In game #2 I got dealt 77, raised and got called by yojimbo who was in the big blind.

In game #1 the flop came down J 4 2 giving me top set! I prayed for action and I got it. I bet, got raised and three bet it and yojimbo just called.

Back in game #2 the flop was coming down K 7 6 giving me another set! Again I prayed for action and I got it. Jimbo checkraised me and I decided to just call planning to raise the turn.

Meanwhile the turn was coming out in game #1 - it paired the 4 giving me a full house! I bet and yojimbo just called. But then it got wild on the river which was a 2. It turns out my friend jimbo had come all this way with A5 and now he'd made a straight! I bet $60, he made it $120, I went to $180 and he capped it at $240! BOOM! $987 pot headed my way!

Of course I was still in the hand in game #2. The turn was a three and I still had a set of sevens. Jimbo was first to act and he bet out $60. I popped him to $120 and he three bet it making it $180! I thought about capping it, but decided it would be pretty clear what I had if I did, so I decided to just call and raise him on the river. Just like clockwork, he bet out and I raised him. He just called and turned over 67 for two pair! $852 pot headed my way!

This all took place in about 45 seconds. It was insane.

Yojimbo played another round or two and then took off. I decided I would do the same and took a short break and a shower. I was about even for the day and feeling great about my comeback.

Post shower I played about another hour and picked up what felt like an easy $1,000 in the $10/$20 games. Then it was time for lunch.

After lunch I got in about an hour of play while my wife was out running errands and my son was taking a nap. When he woke up I had to jump out of my games, but I'd somehow made another $1,000.

I played with my son for a few hours while we watched some Sesamee Street and a little bit of the Mavericks/Nuggets game. When my wife got home I decided to log back on and see what I could do.

I then went totally nuts in three $15/$30 games. I played 204 hands in a little over a half an hour. I won 18 of 25 pots at showdown and 40 pots without a showdown. I was winning a pot about ever three and a half hands playing 6 handed and there was A TON of action.

One of my opponents was a total nut. He was in almost every pot and was giving a ton of action. In one of the first hands of the session I raised in the cutoff with AT and he three bet me from the button. I called and the flop came down AKQ I check raised and he called. The turn was a J making me a straight. I bet and he called, The river was a blank, I bet and he called. Do you know what he had? Pocket fours! WHAT!?! I guess he put me on 89s, 22 or 33.

I just kept making hands and getting action. When the smoke cleared I'd picked up another $3,000! I'm not sure, but $5,000 might be the most I've ever won in one day playing cash games. Certainly I've never run so hot as I did in those $15/$30s.

It was a great day filled with merciless beatdowns!

A Hand From a Commentor

I got three comments within 12 hours of my last post. I think that's a new record. One of the comments was a questions about a tournament hand. Here is the comment:

Here's a hand from a tourney I'd like to hear your thoughts about:

$33 buy-in, 60 make the money I have an average stack with 300 people left.

Blinds are 100/200 and I have about 4700 chips. I open raise to 600 from the cutoff with T9s and the button calls with a very big stack. I'm new to the table so no read on him.

Flop is JJ9 rainbow. I bet 800 and he calls. I think it's likely he's floating with overcards (or nothing) or has a smaller pocket pair, maybe a 9. Less chance he's slowplaying a jack or overpair, or maybe QT/T8.

Turn is a jack. I check thinking that I'm risking him checking behind with overcards, but since he's the big stack I'm hoping to induce a bluff where he could easily be drawing dead. He bets 1800 and I checkraise all-in.

What do you think of my play and thinking behind the play?

I'll start at the beginning. One of the pillars of successful no limit play is avoiding tough decisions. The problem with a hand like T9s is you often end up with tough decisions when you make a pair. Unless you make a straight or a flush (which will only happen about 6% of the time - I think - and that's if you go to the river) it's hard to tell where you stand. While it's not crazy to raise T9s from the cutoff in the scenario you mentioned, it's not crazy to just fold it.

Think about it this way; by far the most likely things to happen are everyone folds or someone reraises you. If everyone folds you win 300. If someone makes a standard reraise (or an all in reraise) you lose 600. That seems like a breakeven play at best. It's better when there are antes.

The big problem here is the size of your chip stack. I'd like this raise a whole lot more if you had 15,000 chips and the 600 wasn't such a big chunk of your stack. Then if someone makes it 1,600 or 1,400 you can call in position and see what happens.

I'm realizing that I could go on and on about blind stealing at this stage of a tournament, but let me quickly say that the stack sizes of they players behind you are much more important that what you have in your hand if you're not going to call a reraise (you want to blinds to be a little short stacked, but no so short they are likely to just go all in). Even if you're going to fold to a reraise, having an ace in your hand doesn't hurt because if people are going to play back at you they usually have a pair or an ace and if you have an ace that's one less for your opponents to have.

I guess that's not really what you were asking, but it occurred to me so I thought I'd mention it.

So once you raise and get called now your in a tough spot. My first thought is that it could be AA or KK trapping. The deeper you get into a tournament the more worried you should be about getting smooth called like this. Of course if it's not one of those two then it's almost certainly big cards.

You have to bet the flop. I would be very worried when I get smooth called again. Overcards are a possibility (I like betting a little more like maybe 1,200 to unload the overcard hands that will take one off for 800), but much more likely it's AA, KK or AJ, KJ or QJ. I think you can probably rule out QT or T8 since he'd probably fold those hands preflop and if he took it to the flop, given the stack sizes he'd probably just move all in. It's very dangerous to hope that someone is floating you. Whenever I think "This guy could be floating me" I always screw myself over.

When you get called on the flop you have to think "I'm beat. I'm done with this hand unless the turn is a 9, 8, Q or maybe a jack." Of course the turn was a jack which means they chances of your opponent having a jack just went way down.

This is a really tough spot. If I was playing my A+ game I would check fold the turn, but 90% of the time I'd do what you did. If you're going to go with it, I like checking to induce the bluff or the bet from a worst hand. Certainly this was a hand that had a lot to it. I welcome additional comments on it from anyone.

I'm guessing he showed you AA and that was the end of the tournament for you?

A Little Poker Quiz

I finally got a "why haven't you been posting on your blog?" comment today so I thought I'd put up a quick post.

I've been playing great poker lately. I don't know if it's because I've been exercising 5 times a week and lost ten pounds or if I've just gotten a little better after however much more experience or if the poker gods have just been with me. Whatever it is for the past month or so I've been steadily booking nice wins with a few moderate losses mixed in.

This success and some increased confidence has allowed me to take a few shots at the bigger games. While I still spend most of my time in the $10/$20 games I usually have at least one $15/$30 in the mix and I've been playing maybe 100 hands a day on average of $30/$60 with a sprinkling of $50/$100. I keep my eyes on the bigger games and if I see someone who is a real fish playing over their heads (usually in an effort to get even) I jump in. So far I've been able to scoop out a few small wins and get some more experience playing for those stakes.

I had two interesting hands come up in the past few days and I thought I'd share the action with you and see if you can guess what my opponents had. It's a little poker quiz!

In the first hand I was playing $30/$60 and got dealt QQ in first position. I raised to $60 and the soft spot in the game made it $90 to go. I capped it and the flop came down T 6 4 with two spades. This looked like a great flop and of course I bet. When my opponent raised I wasn't surprised, but I wasn't thrilled about it either. I thought he could have AA, KK, JJ, 99, 88, 77, AK, AT or two big spades, but I didn't think the pairs below ten were very likely. I could beat all but two of those hands, but given that I'd capped it out of position preflop my opponent was showing a lot of strength by raising me on the flop.

I considered three betting the flop, but opted to just call and see what the turn brought. It was a king! Yuck! I checked and my opponent bet $60. Now I liked my chances much less, but the pot was too big to fold so I called.

The river was and ace! Double Yuck! I checked and called my opponents bet mostly out of frustration. I didn't think I had much of any chance to win, but there was $583 out there staring me in the face and if I folded I would go from little chance to zero chance of getting that money.

What do you think he had?

A) JJ

B) AK

C) QQ

D) QJ of spades

E) 63

F) 89 of spades

I'll put the answer at the end!


In the other hand of interest I was playing $15/$30 and got dealt AK of diamonds on the button. The player to my right who was one of two soft spots in this game came in raising and I three bet. We took the flop heads up and it came down Q T 5 with two diamonds. I didn't have anything yet, but I had a monster draw with two over cards, a flush draw and a gut shot straight draw, so when my opponent bet into me I had no doubt about what to do and raised.

My opponent just called and the turn came down a jack! BINGO! Not only did I have the nuts, but there was also a chance that my opponent just made two pair which would mean good action. My opponent bet into me again! Ah ha!

I raised and to my shock and delight he reraised me! I capped it, he called, and the river was the 2 of diamonds making me a flush. Double bingo! Given the turn action I thought there was a good chance that my opponent also had AK and now I'd be getting the whole pot instead of half. When my opponent bet out I was even more sure he had AK, but I had the nuts so I raised...and he reraised! I capped it, he called and I took down the $652 pot (which interestingly enough is only $9 more than the pot was in the first hand after I called the river).

So what do you think this guy had? Here are some familiar choices!

A) JJ

B) AK

C) QQ

D) QJ of spades

E) 63

F) 89 of diamonds

In the first hand my opponent amazingly had 63 off suit! My mouth practically fell open when I saw it. I would have been devastated if I'd folded on the river and he'd shown his hand. Dan Harrington (the 1995 WSOP main event champ) says he assumes there is a 10% chance that his opponents could be doing something totally irrational. This was clearly a case of pure insanity from my opponent. He had about $600 when that hand started and was broke and gone about 5 hands later. If I ever see him again I'll make sure to get into that game!

In the second hand my opponent hand 89 of diamonds. I think he played the hand pretty well. I probably wouldn't have three bet the river, but I guess he was sure I had AK and didn't consider that I could have AK of diamonds. It's so sweet to make the best possible hand knowing you can't lose and get crazy action.

That's the end of my first poker quiz! I bet you all failed!

Looking Ahead to the WSOP

I've been spending the afternoon of my day off working out how much I owe all of my backers (there were 14 people who had a piece of the action this time around). Some people have asked me if it sucks to give up a piece of my winnings and I can honestly say it doesn't. I wouldn't have played all of the events I did if it was all my own money and it's a great feeling to win money for your family and friends.

I've proposed to all of them that they reinvest some or all of their profits in the WSOP which will start for me on June 5th. In the last 4 series of tournaments in which I took on backers (WCOOP, FTOPS X, FTOPS XI and SCOOP) I've had profits of 160%, 265%, 0% and 154% of the original investment. I guess I didn't realize how good of an investment I am until I just wrote that last sentence!

The WSOP is where I'm hoping to cash in on the good will I've built up. This is the most important and most prestigeous set of poker tournaments in the world and I'd play every event no matter what percentage I had of myself if I could. It attracts the worlds best, but it also attracts plenty of the worst.

Everyone who watches the WSOP on TV and plays poker at all dreams of going to Vegas and taking their shot. Thousands of players descend on the Rio every summer many of whom have never played a tournament at anywhere neat the stakes of the tournaments they enter and some of whom have gotten most of their experience in home games against who knows what kind of competition. These yahoos have no chance against the likes of me!

Of course there will be plenty of players who are better than me, but no one is so good that I don't have a chance against them. I'm good enough that no one can dominate me. In fact I think I've made vast improvements in the past year, and I'm head and shoulders better than I was in 2006 the last time I took a big shot at the WSOP.

Here is a look at my tentative schedule:

Friday June 5th - $2,500 6 handed limit hold'em
June 6th - $1,500 Seven Card Stud
June 7th - Off
June 8th - $2,500 no limit hold'em 6 handed
june 9th - $3,000 HORSE
June 10th - The HORSE starts at 5 pm so I'm hoping I'll make it to day 2)
June 11th - $1,500 No Limit Hold'em
June 12th - $1,500 limit hold'em
June 13th - $1,500 No limit hold'em
June 14th - $1,500 HORSE
June 15h - $2,000 No Limit Hold'em
June 16th - $1,500 No Limit Hold'em

July 6th $10,000 No Limit Hold'em Main Event.

That's $29,000 in tournaments. All of the preliminary events are 3 days events so if I make the money is any of them I'll be on to day two and if I make a final table it will be on to day 3. That means I almost certainly will not get to play all of the events listed and if I do well and still feel up to it I might stay in Vegas as late as June 21st.

Notice that I have TWO HORSE tournaments in there! I'm really excited about both of those.

Another thing that's good is the WSOP organizers have increased the number of chips everyone gets in every tournament. The first three years I played at the WSOP you got one chip for every dollar of buy in. For a $1,500 tournament you started with 1,500 chips and blinds of 25/50. This is one of the reasons I went broke early so many times. It's not hard to get all the money in with those stakes and that means you have to put yourself at risk. Of course I also got massively hosed time after time, but maybe I could have survived those beats if I'd had a deeper stack.

Last year they made a massive improvement DOUBLING the number of starting chips in each tournament without altering the 60 minute rounds, or the structure of blind increases. This doesn't double how long the tournament takes (the most significant factor in terms of overall tournament length is the amount of time they give to each round). In fact it only makes the tournament a little longer, but it does make a big difference in the early stages of the tournament and allows skill to come in to play to a greater degree. This year they've taken it even farther. This year for a $1,500 tournament you get 4,500 chips, they've kept the levels the same length and they've even added a few new levels which should stretch things even more.

I'm going to be in Vegas for close to two weeks the first time around. I know Matt is going to be there some of the time and my wife and son will me making at least a short visit. But I'm sure I'm going to be there by myself some of the time. Even though I'll be focused on playing, Vegas can be a lonely place if you're there by yourself. I'd encourage anyone I know to make the trip out to see me anytime that I'm there.

I'm getting fired up just thinking about it!

The End Of The SCOOP

In the final event of the SCOOP ($1,050 No Limit Hold'em) I got screwed. The blinds were 100/200 and I raised to 600 with KK. I got two callers (a little unusual) and then the player in the small blind moved all in for about 10,000 (which is what we all started with). Not only was this an easy call, but I was about 90% sure I'd be seeing an underpair when the cards got turned over. Sure enough my opponent had 99 and I was 82% to win a big pot. Sadly a 9 came on the flop and that was it.

The good news is in the medium, high and satellite tournaments I made a profit of $23,186!!! You're welcome again backers!

This was a very successful set of tournaments. Of course the highlight was the deep finish in the HORSE event, but I also came close to a final table in the Razz, and the $425 8-game mixed and had a few other solid cashes.

I finished 77th (out of tens of thousands) in the player of the SCOOP competition which was won by "Get Crunk" who I played against in at least 4 SCOOP events! My gross tournament winnings were 119th best and only 70 players had more cashes than I did (I had 7 total). You can check out other interesting things about the SCOOP including a list of the 150 or so countries that were represented by players in the SCOOP at http://www.pokerstars.com/scoop/stats/

I'll be sending all of my backers an e-mail today or tomorrow with your final number and plans for getting you the money.

Out of the $5,200

Jesus I got screwed today! The last 4 hands of my tournament sum it up (there may have been one or two others in there, but if not 4 in a row these were a tight cluster). I get KK, raise and everyone folds. I get AJs I raise and everyone folds. I get JJ I raise and get called by 64s in the big blind. The board is all cards ten and under and I lose to a straight. With my last 500 chips I raise with KQ suited, it gets three bet and capped before getting back to me. I go all in and lose to AJ.

It was all either no action or get action and lose. I played just over 250 hands in this one and only won 25. You can't win 1 in 10 hands playing 6 handed (some of the time we were 4 or 5 handed) and expect to do anything but go broke.

This tournament was so annoying! AHHHHH!

Cold Decked in the SCOOP!

I've been running really bad today. Bad cards, bad beats, and a little bad play have left me out of everything...except for the $5,200 limit tournament.

We started with 5,000 chips and I was just about all in at one point (if I'd lost a specific pot I'd have been down to about 100 chips). I ran it back to 4,400, but now I have 3,100 which is not great. I'm going to do whatever I can to get back into the mix, but I'm not feeling great about my chances.

SCOOP Update

I took my second and last shot at getting into the $10,300 main event. Today pokerstars offered a $797 qualifier that was for supernova's only. On top of splitting the prize money into $10,300 blocks they also added $10,300 from the pokerstars coffers as a gift to the supernovas. 44 people played and I needed to make the top 4 to win a seat or the top 7 to pick up $1,600, but I came up short.

Event #19 $530 (719 entrants) and $55 (3,283 entrants) Pot Limit Omaha is underway, but event #20 is the one I've really been looking forward to - 6 handed limit hold'em!!! We're looking at $55, $530 and my biggest event of the SCOOP $5,200! Let's do this thing! To the house!

Early Exit

I busted out of the $215 with one rebuy and one add-on in about 45 minutes. I'd already had a few things go against me so I was in bad shape, but on the final hand I got AK vs AA, the AA just called my preflop raise and the flop came down king high. Nothing to do there, but go broke! Chalk up -$415.