Taking it to the Next Level

Here is a comment that was left on my last post:

I have been reading your blog regularly since I learned about it from Sfgate. I am really passionate about the game but have had limited success so far despite reading a number of books and playing regularly. I am ~$5K up since starting to play in 04 primarily due to a few big multi table turny wins - otherwise I am pretty break even if not losing player. How do I take the game to the next level? Also, do you use any software or not of any software that is easy to use and is useful to categorize players or get guidance on your actions?
Thanks,
-IK

This is a great question and after a little thought I have a response. First of all let me say that while I don't regularly give poker lessons, I have in the past. If you want to do a few lessons for $50 an hour I'm sure I can help you to some extent. If you're interested you can e-mail me privately.

With that out of the way let me first of all say that there is no magic bullet. The top pros don't have secrets per se. To my knowledge there isn't any software that is so powerful that it will give you a massive edge. No one book has the answers.

The most important thing is experience. But I've seen the same mopes playing $3/$6 every day losing slowly at the Oaks club for the last 10 years. So clearly experience isn't everything.

Tactical knowledge that you get from books, articles, and discussion with other players is probably next on the list. But when you get to the higher levels most of the players have read a few books so that really just gets you to an even playing field with many of your opponents.

Emotional control is very important. One of my best friends is extremely smart. He is way smarter than I am and smarter than all of my friends (most of whom are Berkeley grads). He is extremely good at board games and has been playing poker seriously off and on for 20 years. He should be a great poker player. But he has no self control so he can't make any money playing poker. Losing makes him nuts so he starts playing too many hands, and moving up limits until he's lost so much that he has to quit. Last year he had 17 winning sessions in a row playing $5/$10 and won thousands of dollars. But then he had a session where he was losing badly so he jumped to $10/$20, and then to $30/$60 and lost $8,000 in a matter of hours. This same thing happened to him on 5 or 6 occasions over a year and a half where he'd win 80% of his sessions playing the smaller games, win $4,000 or $5,000 and then give it all back in one massive meltdown. He just couldn't stop himself.

I know it's stupid to chase your losses like that, but I still do the same thing sometimes! I've played in my share of marginal $50/$100 games and $100/$200 games hoping to get even. And we've all played hands in ways that aren't optimal because we're upset about losing. Self control is tough.

Fearlessness is very important too. You can't be afraid to lose. If conditions are right you have to be willing to risk more than you're really comfortable with.

On the other hand if conditions are poor you have to not play those stakes or games even if they are the most fun.

I could go on and on (I've actually gone on more than i planned to already) about what you need to be a great poker player. The point I wanted to get to is you have to put it all together.

Every time you play you have to take it seriously. Never screw around. Never play hands you shouldn't because you're bored or upset. Never give anything away or pass up an edge. Fight for every dollar, every time.

On top of that you need to specialize. Pick the game that is most profitable for your style of play and strengths and play that game almost all the time. Of course I do other things like play tournaments or mixed games, but 90% of my time is devoted to 6 handed limit cash games. When I was playing sit-n-goes for a living in 2004 and 2005 that's all I played. 9 handed, $114 SNGs, all day, every day. I played thousands and thousands of them. I've played millions of hands of 6 handed limit. So when someone who has read the books and played 50,000 hands sits down in my game thinking they are the shit, they have no chance against me.

On top of that, multitable tournaments are a real leak for most players. Even if you're playing with positive expectation that expectation is only realized when you finish in the top few spots. Most players can play well between hand one and the money or even well into the money. But when there are 20 players left in a 1,000 player tournament or they are at the final table, they lock up. Or they just don't have the experience or fearlessness is such a tough, stressful situation to seal the deal.

If you're playing against 1,000+ person fields it takes tens of thousands of tournaments for the luck factor to even out. Stick to tournaments that have smaller fields or play in special events (like the Sunday Million or WCOOP or whatever) that are loaded with satellite qualifiers.

Lastly, (this is very important) make sure you are getting rakeback (check out rakebacknation.com if you have no idea what I'm talking about) or making the most of other bonuses like FPPs, deposit and reload bonuses. I saw someone elses blog briefly who was playing SNGs for a living. He'd won $5,000 for the year in actual play and made $200,000 in bonuses and rakeback. More than half of my income is from FPPs and bonuses. It's a huge deal!

I'm not sure how helpful that was, but hopefully that at least made sense. I welcome any questions you might have or if anyone else wants to add their two cents feel free. Thanks for the comment!

What's Been Going On?

Nothing exciting! I went 0 for 6 in the FTOPS XIII and lost $2,214 which is no big deal. I have been a little fristrated that I haven't had a good result in a tournament in a long time. I've been playing a lot of $55-$215 multitables (a few almost every day) with fields that are usually 500-2,000 players (a few of the FTOPS tournaments were 5,000+) so of course I don't expect to be making final tables very often. But it still feels like it's been a long time since I've had a five figure or high four figure win and I haven't been cashing at the rate I'm used to either. I think it's just one of the natural lulls that comes when you've played thousands of tournaments.

Inspite of this constant drain on my bankroll, I have been winning steadily. Not counting FPPs and bonuses (which are significant) I'm ahead about $8,000 for the past 3 weeks. I played about 2,000 hands of no limit cash games last week and I've played a little 8-game mixed, but for the most part I've just been pounding away at the $10/$20-$50/$100 limit games.

WCOOP is right around the corner in September and after looking at the schedule I'm planning to play 31 of the 45 events with buy ins totaling $19,148. Unlike the FTOPS this is a once a year thing and a much bigger deal. It's the World Championship of Online Poker after all. More details on my schedule and other previews coming soon!

FTOPS Fizzle

I bricked in my last two FTOPS tournaments one of which was the $535 HORSE. I haven't lost the complete $3,000 that I had planned on using as my bankroll for the FTOSP, but my account is on zero and I think I'm just going to bail out at this point.

I know I have a positive expectation in these tournaments, but it just feels like I'm throwing money into the fire. I'll have a few other comments soon, but for now I think I'm just going to hold off and wait for the WCOOP.

FTOPS XIII Event #11 (1/2 PLO 1/2 PLH) underway

We started this one with 1,310 players each with 5,000 chips. I doubled up early with KK but gave some back in the Omaha when I got it all in with AAJ9 vs a shortish stack. After an hour of play I have 7,725.

The edge of the money is 135th which pays $340 and 1st is $57,640.

FTOPS Update

As you may have infered from my lack of post I didn't make the money in the $109 with rebuys. Got it all in with AQ vs JJ and lost. Eventually I'm going to win some of these races!

In the morning I have $216 half pot limit hold'em, half pot limit Omaha. It should be fun.

FTOPS XIII Event #7 ($109 NLH w rebuys) Underway!

2,316 players to start. I made it through the rebuy period only doing one rebuy and the add-on so I'm in for $309. After winning one big hand early I slowly gave back my profits and find myself with the 5,000 chips I paid for. The edge of the money is 234th which pays $696 and first place is $142,000.

I haven't done shit in a tournament in a long time so (in the words of all great losers) I'm due!

FTOPS Event 4 Recap

I had it up to over 11,000 chips at one point, but then went down the tubes. They say to do well in a tournament you have to win with AK and beat AK. Well on two consecutive hands I lost all ins with 88 to AK and then AK to JJ.

What's the worst play in poker?

Here is the history from a hand I just played playing stud hi-lo.


Transcript for game #31356875870 requested by ACESEDAI (wesdave1279@yahoo.com)

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #31356875870: 8-Game (7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit, $10/$20 USD) - 2009/08/07 15:09:47 ET
Table 'Hagihara V' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: johnny1430 ($338 in chips)
Seat 2: amosa ($420 in chips)
Seat 3: kanattack ($155 in chips)
Seat 4: Voltron3 ($282 in chips)
Seat 5: Seb86 ($414.50 in chips)
Seat 6: ACESEDAI ($1431.40 in chips)
ACESEDAI: posts the ante $2
johnny1430: posts the ante $2
amosa: posts the ante $2
kanattack: posts the ante $2
Voltron3: posts the ante $2
Seb86: posts the ante $2
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to johnny1430 [Ts]
Dealt to amosa [5c]
Dealt to kanattack [3s]
Dealt to Voltron3 [Kc]
Dealt to Seb86 [Qd]
Dealt to ACESEDAI [6c 7c As]
kanattack: brings in for $3
Voltron3: calls $3
Seb86: folds
ACESEDAI: raises $7 to $10
johnny1430: folds
amosa: folds
kanattack: folds
Voltron3: calls $7
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to Voltron3 [Kc] [4s]
Dealt to ACESEDAI [6c 7c As] [4h]
ACESEDAI: bets $10
Voltron3: calls $10
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to Voltron3 [Kc 4s] [Td]
Dealt to ACESEDAI [6c 7c As 4h] [9h]
ACESEDAI: checks
Voltron3: bets $20
ACESEDAI: calls $20
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to Voltron3 [Kc 4s Td] [2c]
Dealt to ACESEDAI [6c 7c As 4h 9h] [2s]
ACESEDAI: bets $20
Voltron3: calls $20
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to ACESEDAI [6c 7c As 4h 9h 2s] [6s]
ACESEDAI: bets $20
Voltron3: calls $20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ACESEDAI: shows [6c 7c As 4h 9h 2s 6s] (HI: a pair of Sixes; LO: 7,6,4,2,A)
Voltron3: mucks hand
ACESEDAI collected $86 from pot
ACESEDAI collected $86 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $175 | Rake $3
Seat 1: johnny1430 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: amosa folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: kanattack folded on the 3rd Street
Seat 4: Voltron3 mucked [Js 9c Kc 4s Td 2c 5d]
Seat 5: Seb86 (button) folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ACESEDAI showed [6c 7c As 4h 9h 2s 6s] and won ($172) with HI: a pair of Sixes; LO: 7,6,4,2,A


The worst play in poker? Calling a bet on the river when you can't beat your opponents up cards! This guy called me with K high and no low when I had an ace showing!

FTOPS XIII Event #4 ($216 1R+1A NLH) underway!

This was a tournament that was always on my maybe list and with my mother and father in law in town I wasn't sure if I was going to play. But in the end it seemed like a good idea.

This tournament has a $216 buy in that gets you 2,000 chips. If you want to, for another $200 you can buy 2,000 more chips. Then at the end of the 1st hour of play on the first break you can get 2,500 chips for another $200. For anyone who is serious this is a $616 tournament with 6,500 starting chips.

Late registration is still open, but it looks like we'll have about 1,275 players.

FTOPS XIII Event #2 Recap

I finished 3rd at my initial table in today's shootout tournament. I had some bad luck which I'll share with you and then talk a little be about if it was just bad or epically bad luck.

I went from my starting stack of 3,000 chips to zero in two hands. In the first hand I was on the button holding A9 with blinds of 50/100 and made it 300 to go. The big blind called and the flop came down A Q 8. My opponent checked, I bet 500, and he called. The turn was a blank and I bet 900. Again I got called. The river was a jack and my opponent checked.

I had 1,300 left and thought about sending it all in. My opponent was a bit of a goof and he easily could have called my river bet with a worse ace or a queen. But I decided that it would be better to save that last 1,300 and give my self one more bullet to fire at this tournament if I was beat. So I checked and my opponent turned over KT for a straight.

On the very next hand the player on the button raised to 300 and I moved all in for my last 1,300 from the big blind with Q9. Not exactly the nuts, but three handed I knew my opponent would have a very wide opening range so there was some chance I had the best hand, some chance he would fold to my all in, and some chance I'd be behind, but would still win the pot. He instantly called me with KT. The flop was 99Q and I thought "good he's drawing dead, oh wait he has KT of hears and there are two hearts on board so I guess he has one out." The river was that one out, the jack of hearts making him a straight flush! ACK!

This is a perfect example of how losing players convince themselves that they are insanely unlucky. Let's look at how my hands stacked up to my opponents hands. Before the flop A9 is 59% to beat KT, and Q9 off suit is 34% vs KT suited. That means I was about 73% to win at least one of the pots if all the money had gone in preflop on both hands. That's one way to look at it.

Another way to look at it (usually the best way) is what kind of shape was I in when the money went in the pot? Well I was 34% on the second hand when the money went in and in the first hand most of the money when in on the flop and turn. On the flop I was 81% to win and on the turn I was 91%. I was pretty far ahead on the first pot, but when the money went in, but a little behind on the second one. If you look at when the money went in I was more like 90% to win at least one of the pots. Pretty good but not a sure thing.

What some people will do is look at the point at which they were most ahead. In the first pot I was 91% after the turn and in the second one I was 97.7% after the turn. So they'll say "Man! 488 times out of 489 I would win at least one pot! I am so unlucky!"

It's interesting how you can spin things so that with the same two hands you can say you were 1 in 4, 1 in 10, or 1 in 489 to lose both pots.

To sum up, I got screwed, but not horrible so.

I have my wife's family in town for my son's birthday so I may or may not play the FTOPS stuff I have on my schedule for tomorrow. If I play I'll put up a post when the tournament is underway.